***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 15.4 15.5 17.5 1.2 69.6 68.1 14.2 14.7 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 15.3 16.4 18.0 1.8 84.4 79.7 13.2 13.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 16.7 16.9 17.5 1.4 74.9 72.7 14.9 15.7 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 11.3 12.2 15.0 1.1 66.5 65.7 10.3 11.0 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 13.5 13.9 15.6 1.5 79.1 73.9 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 12.6 12.7 13.3 1.4 74.9 73.3 11.3 11.6 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 15.9 16.5 18.2 1.9 85.8 81.9 13.5 14.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.6 13.2 1.4 73.7 70.8 5.8 6.8 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.8 15.8 1.2 71.6 69.5 13.2 14.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 14.6 14.9 14.3 1.6 78.3 75.4 12.9 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 14.6 14.9 15.2 1.6 79.4 75.6 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.8 13.8 1.2 72.9 69.7 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 14.4 14.9 14.2 1.6 82.1 79.8 12.5 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 15.6 16.2 16.1 1.6 82.7 78.7 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 15.5 15.6 16.4 1.1 68.3 66.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 14.9 15.4 14.9 1.6 81.1 77.6 13.0 14.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 16.2 17.1 17.8 1.9 85.9 82.4 13.7 14.6 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 13.4 13.6 13.4 1.7 79.6 78.7 11.9 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 15.3 15.7 17.7 1.6 80.3 76.6 13.5 14.3 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 9.0 9.2 11.2 1.7 78.8 77.3 7.8 8.3 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.6 14.7 17.1 1.3 72.5 70.3 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 15.2 15.8 17.7 1.9 85.4 82.6 12.9 14.1 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 14.7 15.0 17.2 1.4 75.0 72.4 13.1 13.7 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 15.2 15.7 15.8 1.7 78.9 78.1 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 14.8 14.8 16.2 1.2 68.0 66.9 13.4 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.6 13.1 1.1 70.2 68.6 11.6 12.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 14.8 14.9 16.8 1.2 70.5 68.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.8 15.8 1.3 71.8 69.7 12.4 12.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 11.9 12.8 13.3 2.2 84.2 83.0 9.7 10.9 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 15.5 15.9 18.1 1.7 81.1 77.7 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------