***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 67.2 70.4 66.9 107.6 57.3 54.7 51.0 58.9 82.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 72.5 79.3 61.2 106.4 59.6 55.7 54.7 65.7 83.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 81.6 86.4 67.9 109.5 60.4 56.0 52.5 70.5 94.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 76.0 88.5 68.8 112.2 66.3 57.6 45.3 65.8 88.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 61.0 67.1 67.7 112.0 64.5 56.1 48.6 53.5 70.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 55.0 69.8 77.6 116.1 67.1 60.2 40.4 46.8 68.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 69.9 69.3 62.2 109.8 62.0 56.9 54.9 63.5 71.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 88.8 125.0 80.3 117.5 66.7 58.8 62.6 72.3 121.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 63.5 76.4 72.8 111.2 63.7 55.5 44.0 56.3 81.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 84.4 91.5 84.6 115.1 64.8 57.3 67.9 75.4 91.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 64.2 72.0 64.8 112.1 65.0 56.1 39.5 57.3 72.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 36.9 63.9 62.7 113.2 65.1 56.6 34.8 51.3 64.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 31.9 49.5 62.5 106.4 61.3 54.3 33.8 42.1 57.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 72.9 110.7 85.8 109.3 63.8 56.2 63.1 94.6 112.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 51.1 68.8 62.1 121.4 68.3 59.6 29.7 45.8 68.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 31.9 57.6 61.1 107.5 62.0 55.3 29.7 46.5 58.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 72.9 76.4 59.6 108.2 62.7 55.6 42.3 65.8 83.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 79.2 86.2 89.8 111.1 62.0 56.4 53.5 72.8 86.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 81.9 83.0 62.9 106.8 60.6 55.9 52.2 77.0 84.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 72.5 77.1 85.0 109.5 63.3 55.7 50.4 65.5 90.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 69.2 80.9 68.8 109.3 62.7 55.5 44.1 62.8 85.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 64.7 67.7 59.8 103.5 61.4 53.0 40.4 57.6 70.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 80.9 89.0 65.7 108.5 63.3 56.7 52.1 75.5 93.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 95.5 105.0 79.8 109.5 62.0 56.0 68.6 84.4 111.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 73.7 80.7 71.2 107.1 61.9 54.8 47.8 70.8 81.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 54.3 58.5 53.0 106.3 62.0 55.1 34.7 47.9 64.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 83.6 80.7 70.9 106.3 58.7 54.0 54.9 77.8 90.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 51.3 65.0 68.1 119.2 68.7 59.6 37.6 45.9 62.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 105.5 108.6 90.6 109.6 61.8 56.2 64.3 98.7 112.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 81.6 77.4 62.3 105.4 57.7 54.8 65.1 75.1 93.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------