***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.9 17.2 9.2 72.5 59.8 44.1 4.6 11.1 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 5.9 14.7 7.9 70.0 56.6 43.8 4.8 12.3 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.4 12.1 10.0 76.7 60.0 44.3 3.1 9.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.5 9.9 10.8 81.2 68.0 47.2 3.1 5.2 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.4 13.0 10.5 81.6 64.6 45.8 3.5 9.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.6 14.5 99.7 65.6 50.0 2.6 4.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.6 13.7 8.3 71.5 58.2 43.3 4.2 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.7 22.9 13.3 89.3 62.3 48.2 7.6 14.8 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.1 9.4 11.1 77.8 62.9 44.5 2.6 5.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.7 12.8 13.5 82.7 60.9 45.8 8.7 11.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.7 10.3 90.6 66.2 48.1 3.7 6.6 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.1 14.7 10.7 92.5 65.2 48.7 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.4 8.2 11.8 98.3 67.3 50.0 3.0 6.3 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.7 12.2 13.3 74.2 56.4 41.9 4.4 11.1 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 0.6 9.0 9.2 83.5 70.4 50.1 0.4 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.0 6.6 11.1 94.5 67.1 49.3 3.5 3.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.5 7.7 71.2 57.2 45.3 2.3 4.2 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.4 17.1 14.9 79.0 57.3 43.7 9.0 14.9 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.2 8.3 69.4 56.7 43.5 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 21.6 23.0 15.9 90.4 59.0 48.6 10.6 18.2 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.4 12.8 10.1 73.7 59.9 44.8 2.3 10.8 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.5 8.2 69.9 55.7 44.1 3.9 7.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.1 9.2 70.7 56.8 42.7 5.6 8.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.9 12.4 12.5 77.3 57.4 42.8 5.0 9.2 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.6 10.0 70.6 59.6 43.8 4.5 6.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.9 9.3 101.1 69.3 50.4 2.4 5.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.8 13.7 9.2 67.1 55.7 41.9 6.3 9.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.0 6.3 11.1 87.3 69.5 49.6 1.1 2.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.3 19.8 15.5 80.0 55.4 44.7 9.2 16.7 31.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 5.3 13.0 8.3 71.1 57.1 42.6 7.3 9.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------