***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 10.3 13.2 12.5 100.7 63.5 52.4 5.8 9.1 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.2 9.2 71.3 55.7 45.7 7.3 13.1 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.7 20.3 12.0 92.5 62.1 50.6 6.7 12.3 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 15.4 13.5 108.7 68.3 54.5 3.2 10.2 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.5 15.1 13.1 107.1 66.8 54.2 2.0 7.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.1 15.5 103.8 63.9 52.5 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.7 10.2 79.7 58.8 47.4 7.1 10.0 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 19.2 15.1 107.4 63.6 52.2 2.5 9.6 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.4 13.8 98.2 61.8 53.2 1.6 5.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.7 16.7 15.5 97.9 60.7 50.5 3.5 8.7 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.7 11.2 104.9 64.7 52.8 1.9 3.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.2 12.8 119.2 69.0 54.7 0.7 5.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.5 13.8 116.8 66.2 55.7 1.7 5.0 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.6 22.2 16.0 88.3 60.3 49.5 10.8 14.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.2 9.5 12.0 119.6 70.7 52.4 1.1 2.8 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 10.0 12.9 112.8 66.8 55.0 0.9 4.2 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.1 12.8 9.1 71.5 57.1 47.2 6.2 11.7 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.4 13.7 18.4 101.0 62.4 51.3 4.5 9.8 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.9 13.8 10.0 76.4 57.4 47.2 8.7 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.2 15.6 19.5 113.7 64.6 55.1 4.4 10.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.3 16.5 13.0 100.4 64.5 53.8 4.5 9.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.5 10.1 72.4 57.7 48.5 6.2 11.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 18.5 21.4 11.5 86.0 60.1 50.2 8.2 14.5 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.2 28.3 14.7 91.0 62.3 50.3 8.5 19.7 34.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.8 14.5 13.9 104.8 64.8 53.3 7.2 10.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.5 11.1 115.2 70.0 54.1 0.8 5.8 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 14.1 15.5 14.0 102.5 63.6 52.2 6.3 10.6 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.2 7.8 14.0 120.8 70.7 54.3 1.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.0 19.4 104.7 62.4 52.2 7.7 14.7 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.3 9.7 75.6 56.7 46.3 11.3 13.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------