***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.1 19.1 21.1 111.2 64.8 52.6 5.2 8.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 6.8 19.8 17.4 100.8 63.3 50.5 9.2 10.7 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.9 27.9 20.4 104.0 64.0 51.6 5.0 9.5 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.1 24.7 20.1 106.7 66.7 52.6 3.8 10.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 20.9 27.2 21.5 116.2 68.8 55.6 3.4 16.0 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.5 21.6 106.6 63.6 52.7 6.1 16.3 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.2 15.7 18.7 116.4 66.2 55.6 7.6 10.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.7 19.7 101.3 59.7 48.6 9.6 16.3 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.7 22.5 22.6 115.6 68.6 53.2 8.6 15.9 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.0 35.2 23.2 112.3 65.5 51.4 12.2 17.9 35.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 19.2 23.8 20.3 109.1 64.2 52.6 6.0 16.5 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.6 16.1 17.0 98.1 61.1 50.0 2.7 10.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.1 23.3 18.3 93.9 63.0 49.6 6.0 13.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.9 28.4 22.5 99.3 62.7 50.8 14.0 20.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.4 13.1 19.6 117.2 70.2 55.5 1.8 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.7 17.9 96.2 61.3 50.1 6.5 12.4 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.5 14.3 16.0 101.4 62.5 52.1 4.2 7.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 18.1 22.5 98.4 58.9 47.3 7.0 16.0 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.4 20.4 17.6 98.1 63.7 50.2 8.5 13.5 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.6 19.5 21.5 96.8 54.7 48.9 7.6 18.0 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.9 19.5 22.0 112.3 68.3 52.7 5.4 9.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.2 10.3 15.9 96.5 61.0 50.9 6.9 10.0 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 18.6 100.7 64.7 52.2 5.6 9.9 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.5 31.1 22.2 102.1 65.2 50.0 10.9 20.3 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.1 21.2 23.7 115.3 67.5 55.0 5.2 10.6 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.1 16.8 16.4 90.3 59.8 49.3 3.5 11.6 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.2 21.4 22.8 111.8 65.2 52.8 7.0 10.9 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.1 18.5 18.9 110.3 67.2 52.5 5.1 13.0 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.3 31.7 22.9 93.5 55.2 46.6 9.2 21.6 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.4 23.2 18.5 102.0 62.8 51.5 5.7 17.7 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------