***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 18.2 30.3 24.0 133.4 72.4 67.3 4.2 15.0 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 27.3 33.4 26.7 166.8 79.2 72.2 11.9 19.3 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 32.3 39.4 25.5 155.6 78.1 69.9 7.1 19.6 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 29.0 37.3 24.4 145.7 74.9 68.6 10.0 16.9 30.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 17.2 26.1 22.5 134.8 71.1 64.1 8.1 14.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 27.4 31.4 25.9 151.9 77.4 70.7 13.2 19.0 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 23.2 28.0 25.1 154.4 75.3 71.3 7.5 12.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 32.8 43.1 32.3 163.3 79.0 70.3 10.5 17.9 35.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 24.8 33.5 25.3 144.0 74.5 68.0 8.3 12.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 25.2 30.7 32.4 156.8 77.8 69.4 6.3 15.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 17.8 26.1 22.8 134.7 71.6 64.2 10.5 16.3 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 10.9 15.4 22.2 140.8 72.5 64.2 5.5 9.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 15.4 18.9 18.6 120.2 67.0 58.8 7.6 14.4 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 29.7 38.3 33.9 171.9 82.4 73.4 11.5 14.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 18.0 23.5 21.3 158.5 77.2 69.4 1.9 10.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.3 13.4 19.2 127.3 69.4 61.7 4.2 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 28.4 40.4 26.7 170.5 79.5 72.6 8.1 12.4 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 26.6 34.2 34.1 163.9 78.5 71.0 9.5 15.5 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 28.3 34.9 27.0 170.1 80.4 72.6 13.8 18.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 18.2 33.4 28.0 136.9 73.9 63.5 6.9 14.5 27.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 24.7 29.7 23.6 142.0 73.6 67.9 8.9 12.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 25.3 32.1 25.7 163.2 78.5 69.9 12.5 16.1 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 27.5 37.6 26.4 168.2 80.7 72.2 6.3 15.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 29.4 36.5 30.4 162.3 79.4 71.3 11.2 19.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 14.5 24.2 23.7 127.3 68.1 64.9 7.2 12.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 11.3 23.0 16.1 125.7 68.5 61.3 1.6 8.6 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 21.0 27.6 24.9 131.6 70.7 66.2 4.6 9.3 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 22.4 31.6 24.0 154.8 75.4 69.1 5.0 11.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 35.6 43.8 32.9 163.7 80.4 72.0 15.4 20.8 41.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 32.2 36.2 25.8 157.4 77.1 71.2 13.0 21.5 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------