***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 27.2 27.1 27.5 0.3 54.9 54.4 26.9 27.0 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 27.3 27.2 27.5 0.1 51.8 51.8 26.4 27.1 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 27.2 27.1 27.5 0.1 50.9 51.1 26.3 27.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 20.2 20.0 24.8 0.2 52.8 53.2 19.5 20.0 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 27.8 27.5 25.2 -0.1 46.2 47.6 26.3 27.6 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 26.4 26.4 23.1 0.4 58.5 56.2 25.2 26.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 27.1 27.0 27.5 0.3 54.7 54.4 26.1 26.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.7 23.4 -0.1 47.5 48.9 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 27.1 26.9 25.8 0.0 47.5 49.8 26.0 27.0 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 27.1 26.8 24.2 0.1 49.3 51.1 25.7 26.8 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.9 25.3 -0.3 43.6 45.5 26.0 27.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 26.6 26.4 24.7 -0.2 45.4 46.3 25.5 26.4 27.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 27.6 27.2 24.5 -0.2 44.4 46.0 26.5 27.4 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 26.8 26.7 25.4 0.1 51.6 50.7 25.9 26.6 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.0 26.9 0.2 52.5 52.8 26.9 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 28.4 27.7 24.9 -0.2 44.6 46.3 26.8 28.1 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 26.6 26.4 27.1 0.1 50.5 51.5 26.0 26.4 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 26.4 26.3 23.4 0.2 50.9 52.6 25.2 26.2 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 26.5 26.4 27.5 0.0 50.2 50.5 25.8 26.4 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.2 21.9 21.0 0.1 49.4 51.1 21.0 21.9 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 27.4 27.2 26.7 0.1 49.1 50.6 26.2 27.2 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 27.1 27.0 27.2 0.3 55.4 54.7 26.4 26.9 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 26.9 26.6 27.2 -0.1 47.8 48.1 26.1 26.7 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 26.6 26.5 25.4 0.1 51.4 51.6 25.4 26.5 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 27.4 27.4 25.8 0.2 51.6 52.1 26.2 27.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 27.2 27.2 24.7 0.2 53.9 53.6 26.4 27.0 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 26.9 26.9 26.7 0.4 55.5 55.5 26.1 26.7 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 28.2 27.9 25.5 0.1 51.4 51.6 27.3 27.8 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.7 21.5 22.5 0.1 50.7 51.8 20.8 21.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 27.0 27.0 27.6 0.3 54.8 53.9 26.0 26.9 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------