***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.5 28.8 0.7 56.7 56.2 27.9 29.2 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.0 29.1 28.9 0.6 57.4 56.1 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.1 29.0 0.6 55.2 55.6 27.3 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 21.9 22.4 26.5 0.4 54.6 53.6 19.7 21.1 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.7 26.6 0.1 49.4 50.7 27.7 28.8 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.0 24.5 0.5 57.4 54.1 26.2 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.8 29.0 28.9 0.7 57.5 57.0 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.1 25.1 0.2 52.2 51.5 15.8 17.0 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.7 26.8 0.3 52.0 52.6 27.0 28.5 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.9 25.7 0.4 54.4 53.4 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.3 26.4 0.0 47.7 49.2 27.0 28.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.3 26.4 -0.1 49.1 48.7 26.3 27.5 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.8 25.4 -0.1 50.1 48.2 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.4 26.6 0.6 54.5 55.5 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 29.9 30.0 28.0 0.6 57.6 55.1 27.8 29.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.7 26.1 0.0 49.7 49.0 27.6 29.7 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.4 28.6 0.6 57.2 56.1 26.5 28.2 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.2 28.3 25.1 0.7 58.0 55.8 26.1 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.4 29.0 0.6 56.1 55.5 26.4 28.0 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.1 22.5 0.5 56.9 54.1 22.0 23.4 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.8 27.8 0.4 53.5 53.3 27.4 28.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.6 29.0 28.7 0.8 60.4 58.1 26.8 28.3 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.6 28.8 0.4 54.0 54.6 26.9 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.3 26.7 0.6 56.3 55.9 26.4 27.5 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.9 26.8 0.5 56.7 54.0 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.7 26.5 0.3 54.4 52.1 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.6 27.9 0.7 58.6 56.4 27.2 28.0 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.1 30.5 27.0 0.4 54.3 53.0 27.5 29.5 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.5 24.0 0.6 57.6 55.1 21.2 22.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.8 29.0 0.7 57.7 57.0 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------