***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 25.4 27.8 27.5 0.1 49.9 50.6 26.3 27.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 24.9 26.8 27.5 0.0 50.4 49.3 25.8 26.8 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 24.9 27.2 27.7 -0.1 50.9 49.3 25.9 27.2 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 18.3 20.3 25.0 -0.2 46.1 48.4 18.7 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 25.9 27.1 25.2 -0.4 43.9 46.0 25.9 27.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 24.4 26.5 23.1 0.0 49.0 51.0 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 25.0 27.3 27.5 0.1 51.0 50.8 25.4 27.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.0 15.2 23.7 -0.3 47.4 47.7 14.7 15.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 25.4 27.2 25.5 -0.3 48.9 47.7 25.3 27.3 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 25.4 27.4 24.3 -0.1 49.8 48.8 25.1 27.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 25.6 26.5 25.0 -0.5 43.0 45.3 25.2 27.3 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 24.5 25.8 25.0 -0.5 43.8 45.9 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 25.5 27.0 24.0 -0.4 42.6 46.7 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 25.0 27.3 25.3 -0.1 51.0 49.3 26.1 27.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 26.6 28.3 26.4 -0.2 47.9 48.9 27.1 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 26.2 27.3 24.6 -0.4 43.5 46.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 24.6 26.4 27.3 0.0 48.9 49.6 24.9 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 24.6 27.0 23.8 0.0 52.5 50.5 24.7 26.8 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 24.6 26.7 27.6 -0.1 50.1 48.6 25.1 26.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 20.3 21.8 21.2 -0.1 49.6 49.5 20.3 21.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 25.2 26.9 26.5 -0.2 48.6 48.4 25.5 27.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.4 27.4 0.2 52.8 51.9 25.1 26.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 24.9 26.8 27.4 -0.2 49.2 47.8 25.4 26.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 24.4 26.7 25.4 0.0 52.4 49.9 25.5 26.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 25.5 27.0 25.5 -0.1 46.4 49.0 25.8 27.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 25.6 27.2 25.0 0.0 48.6 50.8 25.9 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 24.8 26.5 26.6 0.1 49.7 51.0 25.9 26.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 26.8 28.3 25.4 -0.3 45.7 48.0 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 19.9 22.6 22.7 0.0 51.3 50.0 19.7 22.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 25.1 27.2 27.6 0.1 51.8 50.6 25.7 27.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------