***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 26.7 25.7 25.7 -0.6 38.6 40.5 25.2 26.2 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 26.3 25.4 25.6 -1.1 37.0 38.4 25.1 25.8 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.5 25.4 25.4 -1.1 34.6 36.6 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.7 18.6 22.6 -0.3 38.9 41.3 17.9 19.3 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 24.6 25.0 23.5 -0.9 31.9 35.3 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 25.6 24.6 21.5 -0.2 40.3 42.1 23.8 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 25.8 25.2 25.7 -0.7 40.6 41.2 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.5 13.2 20.9 -1.1 30.1 33.6 13.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 23.7 24.4 24.3 -1.0 32.5 34.9 24.5 25.7 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 23.7 24.6 22.0 -1.0 31.3 34.5 24.7 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.2 24.7 23.7 -1.2 29.2 33.1 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.5 24.0 22.4 -1.0 32.1 34.3 24.1 25.6 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 24.1 25.3 23.5 -0.9 32.5 33.8 25.4 26.6 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 24.2 23.7 23.5 -1.4 29.1 32.5 23.9 26.0 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 27.8 26.1 25.8 -0.4 38.2 39.8 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 24.7 25.7 23.4 -0.9 32.1 34.9 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 25.4 24.6 25.1 -1.2 37.6 37.5 24.5 25.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.7 20.9 -1.2 28.9 32.5 23.9 25.3 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 25.7 24.5 25.4 -1.3 35.0 36.8 24.2 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 21.1 19.6 18.9 -1.0 31.5 33.4 19.6 20.4 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 26.6 25.0 25.2 -0.9 34.2 36.2 24.8 26.1 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 26.1 25.1 25.1 -1.0 37.8 39.1 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 26.3 23.6 24.9 -1.6 30.9 33.2 24.3 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 23.3 23.4 23.4 -1.3 30.0 32.8 24.1 25.3 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 26.9 25.7 24.5 -0.6 37.0 39.1 25.2 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 26.9 25.6 22.3 -0.4 40.5 40.6 24.5 26.6 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 26.3 25.5 25.2 -0.5 40.6 41.8 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 27.8 26.4 23.8 -0.5 37.1 39.1 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 18.0 19.2 20.2 -1.2 29.6 32.5 19.2 20.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 26.0 25.3 25.8 -0.8 39.0 40.8 24.8 25.6 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------