***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 15.1 15.2 17.4 0.5 61.6 60.6 14.6 15.0 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 14.7 15.1 17.2 0.5 60.1 58.8 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 16.4 16.6 17.5 0.4 59.3 58.5 15.9 16.3 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 11.9 12.3 14.9 0.6 63.5 62.7 10.9 11.7 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.5 13.5 15.0 0.4 58.0 58.8 12.7 13.4 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 12.5 12.7 12.9 0.6 67.0 63.9 12.0 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 15.0 15.3 17.4 0.5 62.2 60.2 14.2 14.9 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 7.5 7.5 12.3 0.2 53.9 54.5 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.8 15.1 0.4 60.3 60.1 14.1 14.4 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.6 13.3 0.4 59.1 59.0 14.0 14.3 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.4 14.4 0.2 54.0 54.9 13.8 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 12.3 12.3 13.3 0.2 51.7 53.0 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.9 14.0 13.2 0.3 55.5 57.4 13.4 13.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 15.2 15.4 15.0 0.5 64.9 61.5 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.9 16.5 0.6 62.4 62.8 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.6 13.9 0.3 55.7 56.4 14.1 14.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 15.2 15.8 17.0 0.4 61.0 58.7 14.6 15.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.4 12.7 0.5 63.1 61.8 12.5 13.1 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 14.6 15.0 17.2 0.4 58.5 57.8 14.1 14.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.0 9.1 10.4 0.3 56.3 57.6 8.3 8.9 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.7 16.4 0.4 58.6 59.1 13.8 14.5 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 14.4 14.6 17.1 0.6 62.5 61.1 13.7 14.3 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.4 17.0 0.4 57.8 56.9 13.7 14.3 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.0 14.9 0.5 63.9 61.9 14.2 14.8 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.6 15.9 0.4 59.2 59.1 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.5 12.7 0.4 61.3 60.1 12.9 13.4 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.7 16.7 0.5 62.2 61.0 13.7 14.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.9 15.3 0.5 61.7 61.8 12.9 13.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.4 11.6 11.9 0.4 59.4 59.1 10.8 11.2 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 15.0 15.3 17.5 0.5 61.7 60.0 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------