***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 17.9 0.3 55.3 54.4 15.2 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.1 17.9 0.3 55.3 55.1 14.0 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.9 18.2 0.3 53.8 54.0 16.4 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.0 15.3 0.2 56.2 53.4 12.0 12.4 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.6 15.2 0.1 51.7 51.4 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 13.6 0.4 59.0 55.1 12.8 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.6 18.0 0.3 55.5 55.6 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.6 13.1 0.1 51.5 51.4 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.7 15.4 0.2 54.8 53.3 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.6 13.9 0.2 55.1 53.6 14.8 15.1 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.3 14.8 0.0 50.8 50.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.3 13.9 0.0 49.1 49.5 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 13.3 0.1 51.7 49.9 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.4 15.5 0.3 55.2 54.7 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 16.9 0.3 58.5 55.1 16.1 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.6 14.1 0.0 52.0 49.8 15.2 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.8 17.7 0.3 56.8 54.8 14.9 16.1 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 13.2 0.3 58.7 56.1 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.0 17.9 0.3 54.4 54.5 14.6 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.0 10.8 0.3 56.0 54.1 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.9 16.8 0.2 54.6 52.8 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.9 17.7 0.5 58.5 57.1 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.2 17.7 0.2 53.3 53.2 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 15.4 0.3 57.3 55.7 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.8 16.2 0.2 53.4 52.6 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.6 13.2 0.2 52.1 51.6 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.7 17.1 0.3 55.3 54.8 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.0 15.7 0.3 57.5 53.8 14.1 14.2 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.0 12.5 0.3 57.7 55.4 11.7 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.6 18.2 0.4 55.2 55.9 14.8 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------