***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.6 17.2 0.3 54.4 53.6 14.2 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.5 17.1 0.2 54.0 52.3 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.3 17.5 0.3 55.2 53.8 15.5 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.8 14.7 0.3 53.8 53.6 10.2 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.3 14.7 0.2 51.8 52.9 12.3 13.3 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.1 12.9 0.3 55.4 55.1 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.6 17.2 0.2 56.2 52.6 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 12.5 0.2 52.7 52.8 6.6 7.2 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.3 14.9 0.3 53.9 55.1 13.6 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.3 13.4 0.4 56.3 55.6 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.2 14.2 0.1 50.9 51.9 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.1 13.4 0.1 51.9 52.2 11.7 12.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.9 12.8 0.2 54.3 53.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.1 15.0 0.4 58.0 56.2 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.2 16.2 0.2 51.5 52.7 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.3 13.6 0.2 53.1 52.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.1 16.9 0.2 51.8 52.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.4 12.7 0.5 60.4 58.2 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.5 17.2 0.2 53.6 52.4 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.0 10.3 0.3 53.6 54.6 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.2 16.3 0.3 52.8 53.7 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.4 17.0 0.4 55.9 55.0 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.0 17.0 0.2 53.3 52.5 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.1 14.9 0.5 61.0 57.4 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.3 15.6 0.2 51.4 52.3 13.1 14.3 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.2 12.7 0.3 55.8 55.5 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.7 16.4 0.3 53.3 53.5 13.0 13.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.5 15.2 0.2 52.8 53.3 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.9 12.0 0.4 56.5 56.0 10.1 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.7 17.4 0.3 55.6 53.3 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------