***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.6 18.0 1.3 71.2 67.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 15.4 15.7 17.9 1.3 71.3 68.7 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.0 17.0 18.0 1.1 69.9 67.1 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.4 15.4 1.3 72.5 69.9 9.7 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.6 15.6 1.0 68.8 67.1 11.8 12.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 13.0 13.2 13.1 1.1 72.8 69.0 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 15.4 15.5 18.0 1.4 72.8 69.5 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.8 12.7 0.8 65.0 63.1 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.2 15.8 1.1 69.2 68.3 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 14.9 15.0 13.8 1.0 68.0 66.4 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 15.0 14.8 15.0 0.8 65.0 64.0 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.9 13.8 0.7 64.6 62.4 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.3 14.2 13.7 0.8 66.9 64.5 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.8 15.6 1.2 73.5 69.4 13.4 14.7 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.5 17.1 1.1 72.3 68.8 13.9 15.0 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.3 14.5 0.8 67.5 64.7 12.8 14.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 15.4 15.7 17.7 1.4 74.4 70.1 13.5 14.4 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 13.5 13.5 13.2 1.1 69.8 68.6 11.8 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 15.2 15.2 17.8 1.2 70.6 67.8 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.4 9.0 11.0 1.0 68.4 66.4 7.6 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.2 17.0 1.1 70.8 68.0 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.2 17.8 1.5 76.3 70.5 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.6 14.7 17.6 1.1 70.6 66.7 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 15.2 15.5 15.5 1.1 70.4 69.1 13.0 14.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.9 16.6 1.1 70.3 66.5 12.5 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.8 13.2 0.9 70.6 66.7 11.6 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.8 17.3 1.2 71.4 67.7 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 13.8 14.0 15.8 1.2 72.4 69.5 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 12.1 11.6 12.4 1.0 67.6 66.4 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.3 18.1 1.3 70.8 68.6 13.3 14.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------