***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 14.8 14.7 16.4 0.3 52.7 51.7 14.2 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 14.4 14.2 16.0 0.0 47.6 46.8 13.2 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 16.1 15.7 16.2 0.0 46.4 46.6 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 11.0 11.1 14.0 0.5 55.2 54.5 10.1 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 13.0 12.8 14.5 0.3 49.3 50.2 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 12.0 12.0 11.7 0.5 54.4 55.1 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 14.5 14.5 16.2 0.2 51.0 49.7 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.3 11.0 -0.3 37.7 39.6 6.0 6.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 14.1 14.0 14.5 0.2 47.8 48.5 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 13.9 13.6 12.2 -0.1 42.7 44.4 13.4 13.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 13.6 13.4 13.7 0.0 45.6 45.7 13.0 13.5 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.1 12.1 -0.2 39.1 40.3 11.0 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 13.5 13.5 12.8 0.2 51.7 49.5 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 14.7 14.4 13.9 0.0 46.1 46.6 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 15.1 15.2 15.9 0.6 56.6 56.8 14.1 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 14.5 14.3 13.4 0.2 48.5 48.5 13.3 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 15.0 14.3 15.7 -0.1 45.6 45.9 13.6 14.9 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 12.9 12.4 11.5 -0.1 40.8 43.0 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 14.3 14.1 16.0 -0.1 47.7 46.3 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.5 7.8 9.3 -0.3 37.5 39.1 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 14.0 13.8 15.6 0.1 46.9 47.6 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 13.9 13.7 15.9 -0.1 47.7 46.8 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 14.1 13.9 15.8 -0.1 47.2 46.0 13.0 14.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 13.8 13.5 13.9 0.0 43.2 45.1 13.3 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 96 4 100 14.2 14.2 15.4 0.3 51.5 50.8 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 12.9 12.8 11.8 0.3 50.8 50.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 14.2 14.3 16.0 0.3 53.3 52.1 13.0 14.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 13.0 13.0 14.5 0.4 53.2 52.7 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.0 10.2 10.6 -0.2 40.1 41.3 9.8 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 14.7 14.5 16.4 0.1 50.0 48.6 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------