***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 43.4 56.0 33.6 74.1 43.2 37.5 51.0 58.9 82.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 48.9 65.4 39.0 82.5 49.1 41.4 54.7 65.7 83.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 54.2 65.8 37.6 78.8 41.4 39.9 52.5 70.5 94.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 44.8 53.7 36.7 72.6 39.2 37.4 45.3 65.8 88.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 39.5 49.0 36.1 66.3 36.3 34.3 48.6 53.5 70.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 35.4 44.0 54.9 78.9 37.4 38.9 40.4 46.8 68.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 47.7 62.5 37.6 78.4 44.1 39.2 54.9 63.5 71.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 54.1 64.6 43.5 70.2 35.4 34.6 62.6 72.3 121.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 38.7 49.3 40.3 69.7 41.6 35.4 44.0 56.3 81.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 49.0 68.5 45.8 68.3 36.7 34.5 67.9 75.4 91.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 39.8 40.9 29.7 64.3 35.1 33.0 39.5 57.3 72.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 32.7 40.9 30.9 67.8 36.3 34.8 34.8 51.3 64.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 29.8 33.8 38.0 70.6 33.0 35.5 33.8 42.1 57.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 72.5 81.3 50.4 74.3 42.5 38.7 63.1 94.6 112.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 27.1 34.9 30.2 67.8 38.8 33.8 29.7 45.8 68.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 28.8 31.7 33.7 70.2 36.9 36.0 29.7 46.5 58.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 43.8 54.8 36.3 76.5 45.0 39.1 42.3 65.8 83.1 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 51.1 58.2 55.2 70.7 34.5 35.6 53.5 72.8 86.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 52.8 76.7 39.2 83.7 49.8 42.7 52.2 77.0 84.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 50.6 55.1 59.3 80.6 36.4 38.9 50.4 65.5 90.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 41.5 45.3 34.4 70.2 38.1 34.8 44.1 62.8 85.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 46.7 54.8 37.6 79.4 44.7 40.7 40.4 57.6 70.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 54.8 70.7 39.9 80.5 48.7 42.0 52.1 75.5 93.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 69.0 75.7 48.7 72.7 38.7 37.8 68.6 84.4 111.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 40.4 52.4 37.5 66.3 37.7 33.6 47.8 70.8 81.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 26.2 34.7 32.7 72.0 33.1 35.2 34.7 47.9 64.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 48.3 64.1 38.0 69.7 39.7 35.8 54.9 77.8 90.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 33.5 41.1 33.6 70.7 40.4 36.7 37.6 45.9 62.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 68.3 65.2 55.4 73.8 34.9 36.1 64.3 98.7 112.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 58.2 73.9 38.6 82.6 45.3 41.2 65.1 75.1 93.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------