***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.5 25.8 7.1 127.4 69.8 47.8 4.6 11.1 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 6.3 22.2 8.0 119.2 69.9 50.0 4.8 12.3 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.8 17.5 8.5 131.5 71.9 49.5 3.1 9.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.7 9.9 8.0 118.5 69.3 49.2 3.1 5.2 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.9 13.6 7.6 104.4 67.7 45.4 3.5 9.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 11.9 9.8 91.1 70.3 47.4 2.6 4.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 5.2 16.4 7.4 102.4 65.8 48.2 4.2 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.3 26.2 8.2 101.3 66.1 45.7 7.6 14.8 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.5 8.0 99.8 65.6 45.7 2.6 5.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.8 13.8 8.7 93.4 63.3 44.4 8.7 11.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.1 5.8 97.8 66.6 44.5 3.7 6.6 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.0 17.5 6.2 114.0 69.9 46.5 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.3 9.5 7.6 112.4 72.1 48.9 3.0 6.3 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.5 20.1 11.6 113.7 66.2 48.9 4.4 11.1 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.7 24.6 7.5 125.3 75.8 52.7 0.4 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.9 7.1 6.3 102.1 70.2 46.4 3.5 3.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.0 19.2 8.2 110.7 69.1 51.2 2.3 4.2 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 18.3 18.7 10.5 90.7 62.1 45.2 9.0 14.9 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.8 19.4 8.5 135.5 73.4 50.5 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.8 25.8 11.0 107.3 64.6 47.6 10.6 18.2 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.6 16.1 7.7 120.7 69.1 49.0 2.3 10.8 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.2 17.5 9.7 139.3 77.0 52.3 3.9 7.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 20.4 9.3 143.7 76.2 50.2 5.6 8.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.6 20.0 10.1 101.2 66.0 46.9 5.0 9.2 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.2 13.3 9.0 127.7 70.1 50.3 4.5 6.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.7 16.1 5.3 101.1 74.0 46.8 2.4 5.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.8 21.7 8.6 123.3 70.4 48.7 6.3 9.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.2 9.5 7.4 110.6 72.0 49.8 1.1 2.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 27.4 10.7 96.6 62.8 46.3 9.2 16.7 31.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.7 19.6 8.0 124.6 69.7 49.0 7.3 9.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------