***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.4 7.1 58.6 51.5 38.3 5.8 9.1 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.2 14.6 9.7 74.5 58.3 43.5 7.3 13.1 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.2 12.8 8.8 65.5 50.9 39.8 6.7 12.3 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.0 7.1 7.4 53.6 44.8 35.4 3.2 10.2 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.0 3.3 7.7 49.3 42.7 34.7 2.0 7.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 1.0 2.6 14.5 67.4 47.0 36.7 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.0 9.3 70.0 55.6 41.9 7.1 10.0 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.2 5.6 10.6 57.3 42.2 36.5 2.5 9.6 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.3 8.0 46.6 44.3 34.2 1.6 5.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.3 10.7 53.2 42.0 36.3 3.5 8.7 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 1.3 2.7 6.8 49.2 42.4 35.3 1.9 3.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.2 7.1 52.5 43.9 36.1 0.7 5.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.9 4.5 9.8 62.0 47.7 36.6 1.7 5.0 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 8.2 15.0 13.5 66.3 51.1 39.9 10.8 14.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.3 1.3 5.2 45.9 41.2 33.0 1.1 2.8 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.6 3.7 8.2 60.4 47.2 36.6 0.9 4.2 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.9 12.1 9.2 72.1 54.1 43.2 6.2 11.7 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.1 8.0 14.0 59.1 43.8 37.7 4.5 9.8 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 7.8 14.7 9.8 75.5 60.2 43.7 8.7 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.0 10.2 16.1 75.1 47.7 40.4 4.4 10.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.4 8.6 6.7 48.1 43.3 34.3 4.5 9.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.9 12.4 8.9 70.2 55.0 43.1 6.2 11.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 7.4 20.9 10.3 70.9 57.4 42.5 8.2 14.5 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 9.8 18.8 12.4 61.6 46.5 38.8 8.5 19.7 34.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.6 8.9 8.1 50.9 43.2 35.6 7.2 10.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.4 6.3 8.8 72.8 56.2 42.1 0.8 5.8 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.7 9.9 8.5 56.3 48.5 37.4 6.3 10.6 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.9 3.5 7.2 57.1 47.8 36.2 1.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 7.3 12.1 14.3 64.3 46.0 38.5 7.7 14.7 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.7 9.3 72.1 57.4 42.3 11.3 13.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------