***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.3 17.6 11.0 85.6 64.1 44.1 5.2 8.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 6.2 21.4 13.2 100.1 69.5 46.9 9.2 10.7 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.8 29.7 12.4 93.9 66.2 47.7 5.0 9.5 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 12.3 11.1 79.7 57.6 43.1 3.8 10.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 7.2 18.9 12.0 80.5 59.9 43.7 3.4 16.0 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.7 18.9 19.3 96.8 60.5 47.5 6.1 16.3 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 5.7 14.5 12.7 91.9 62.3 44.9 7.6 10.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.6 20.9 13.2 78.3 57.2 43.9 9.6 16.3 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.2 17.6 13.8 87.3 63.7 47.5 8.6 15.9 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.8 33.2 15.2 84.5 61.5 46.5 12.2 17.9 35.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 19.2 22.7 10.2 82.8 62.5 46.2 6.0 16.5 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.7 8.9 77.7 59.5 46.3 2.7 10.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.3 17.4 13.0 87.2 58.8 48.6 6.0 13.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 25.3 28.5 15.8 89.0 65.1 49.7 14.0 20.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.2 8.0 9.9 76.9 56.7 43.6 1.8 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.1 14.9 11.2 85.2 60.1 47.8 6.5 12.4 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.8 16.3 11.4 87.5 64.6 45.6 4.2 7.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.1 18.4 17.6 85.2 59.2 46.9 7.0 16.0 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 6.6 23.3 13.0 102.8 71.3 48.9 8.5 13.5 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.8 19.5 17.9 89.9 54.6 48.4 7.6 18.0 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.1 15.3 11.1 84.4 63.3 45.3 5.4 9.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.2 14.4 11.5 90.0 66.7 47.7 6.9 10.0 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.9 20.3 12.7 98.6 68.6 50.8 5.6 9.9 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 26.4 27.9 15.8 89.7 63.2 49.5 10.9 20.3 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.6 11.4 11.7 72.9 56.0 39.7 5.2 10.6 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.6 15.2 9.3 78.3 56.9 47.5 3.5 11.6 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 6.6 16.6 12.1 77.4 58.2 41.1 7.0 10.9 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.4 17.8 10.7 81.8 60.4 45.7 5.1 13.0 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 25.7 31.7 17.2 84.1 55.4 46.7 9.2 21.6 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 7.7 24.0 13.3 99.2 67.0 46.7 5.7 17.7 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------