***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 5.0 13.2 8.3 56.5 47.5 30.8 4.2 15.0 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 7.3 13.6 8.1 56.4 41.9 29.5 11.9 19.3 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 8.3 11.2 7.7 53.8 40.9 30.4 7.1 19.6 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 6.9 16.3 10.1 63.4 46.8 34.0 10.0 16.9 30.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 5.3 9.4 8.8 53.1 35.6 29.3 8.1 14.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 10.4 16.0 11.3 65.6 41.6 39.0 13.2 19.0 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 7.0 11.7 8.2 60.4 43.8 32.2 7.5 12.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.3 11.5 62.3 38.6 35.7 10.5 17.9 35.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 4.3 11.2 10.6 62.4 45.0 34.6 8.3 12.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 6.0 7.6 11.1 56.9 36.9 32.1 6.3 15.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 4.8 10.5 7.0 49.1 33.0 29.1 10.5 16.3 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.4 6.4 8.7 57.9 39.5 35.2 5.5 9.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 4.9 7.5 7.7 46.7 32.4 29.4 7.6 14.4 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 7.0 12.2 9.4 48.8 35.3 29.9 11.5 14.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 3.4 5.6 7.5 53.7 41.0 31.6 1.9 10.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 4.0 6.8 8.1 53.3 37.5 32.9 4.2 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 6.1 10.4 7.5 52.6 42.9 30.1 8.1 12.4 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 6.1 10.3 13.1 59.2 36.4 33.6 9.5 15.5 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 8.3 16.6 7.8 52.8 41.1 29.5 13.8 18.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.5 14.2 65.4 40.0 37.1 6.9 14.5 27.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 6.4 11.2 8.8 57.4 43.0 30.6 8.9 12.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 8.1 14.4 7.6 50.4 38.5 30.0 12.5 16.1 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 6.6 9.3 7.7 48.6 40.8 30.6 6.3 15.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 8.5 12.6 10.3 53.6 37.5 31.9 11.2 19.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 4.6 7.7 8.7 49.9 35.5 25.6 7.2 12.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.1 2.6 9.3 57.4 35.9 34.1 1.6 8.6 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 3.0 5.3 8.8 52.5 41.3 28.4 4.6 9.3 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 3.4 8.7 8.4 54.9 40.8 32.3 5.0 11.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 11.0 17.0 13.2 62.1 38.5 35.5 15.4 20.8 41.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 9.1 18.2 8.0 57.3 41.0 30.2 13.0 21.5 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------