***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 28.3 30.2 29.9 2.4 92.0 83.3 26.9 27.0 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 27.7 29.4 30.2 2.5 89.1 82.7 26.4 27.1 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 27.6 29.6 29.7 2.1 87.8 81.2 26.3 27.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 21.2 22.5 27.7 2.1 90.7 82.8 19.5 20.0 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 28.3 30.1 27.7 2.0 89.8 82.0 26.3 27.6 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 27.1 28.6 25.1 1.7 88.8 81.4 25.2 26.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 27.6 29.3 30.2 2.6 90.6 83.7 26.1 26.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 16.4 18.2 25.8 2.0 91.5 83.1 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 27.6 29.5 28.2 2.0 89.7 82.2 26.0 27.0 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 27.8 29.8 26.6 1.9 91.0 81.9 25.7 26.8 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 28.2 30.5 27.3 2.1 92.9 84.1 26.0 27.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 27.4 29.1 27.1 2.2 93.8 86.6 25.5 26.4 27.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 28.5 30.6 26.7 2.1 94.3 85.1 26.5 27.4 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 27.3 28.7 27.5 1.8 85.6 79.1 25.9 26.6 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 29.2 30.8 28.9 2.2 92.8 84.9 26.9 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 29.3 30.9 27.2 2.1 92.8 84.2 26.8 28.1 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 27.5 28.2 29.7 2.3 86.5 80.5 26.0 26.4 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 27.0 29.1 25.7 1.8 89.7 80.4 25.2 26.2 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 27.1 28.6 30.0 2.4 88.0 81.8 25.8 26.4 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 22.8 23.9 23.4 1.6 85.9 78.7 21.0 21.9 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 28.0 29.7 29.1 2.1 88.8 82.1 26.2 27.2 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 27.7 28.1 29.3 2.0 84.7 78.4 26.4 26.9 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 27.5 29.3 29.4 2.2 88.0 81.1 26.1 26.7 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 27.1 28.8 27.5 1.9 86.5 80.1 25.4 26.5 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 28.0 30.3 28.2 2.2 90.2 82.9 26.2 27.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 28.1 29.8 26.6 2.2 94.4 86.4 26.4 27.0 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 27.6 29.5 29.0 2.4 92.1 83.8 26.1 26.7 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 29.4 30.8 28.3 2.1 91.7 83.9 27.3 27.8 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 22.3 24.0 24.6 1.7 88.6 79.9 20.8 21.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 27.5 29.6 30.3 2.5 89.8 83.1 26.0 26.9 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------