***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 30.1 30.4 30.8 2.0 77.4 69.1 27.9 29.2 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 29.7 30.0 30.9 2.0 75.1 67.8 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 29.7 30.1 30.5 1.7 74.8 66.6 27.3 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 23.4 24.3 29.0 1.8 77.8 68.5 19.7 21.1 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 30.8 31.5 28.8 1.8 78.8 68.6 27.7 28.8 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 29.2 29.5 26.4 1.7 75.8 69.0 26.2 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 29.5 29.9 30.9 2.1 76.1 68.9 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 18.5 19.1 27.1 1.9 79.0 70.1 15.8 17.0 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 30.1 30.6 29.0 1.8 77.7 68.2 27.0 28.5 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 29.9 30.3 27.6 1.8 77.5 68.7 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 30.6 31.4 28.5 2.0 80.3 71.2 27.0 28.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.5 28.4 2.2 80.8 72.1 26.3 27.5 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 30.8 31.7 27.7 2.0 79.0 70.7 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 29.2 29.3 28.2 1.5 71.1 64.2 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.9 29.6 1.9 78.7 70.0 27.8 29.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 31.5 32.2 28.3 2.0 79.1 70.4 27.6 29.7 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.2 30.4 1.9 72.7 66.6 26.5 28.2 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 29.0 29.3 26.6 1.6 74.8 66.4 26.1 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 29.2 29.5 30.8 1.9 74.4 67.2 26.4 28.0 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 25.1 25.4 24.5 1.5 74.7 65.4 22.0 23.4 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 30.2 30.6 30.0 1.8 76.7 68.0 27.4 28.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 29.3 29.6 30.1 1.7 69.7 65.3 26.8 28.3 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 29.3 29.6 30.2 1.8 73.4 66.7 26.9 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 29.1 29.7 28.3 1.5 73.6 65.5 26.4 27.5 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 30.4 31.0 29.0 2.0 78.5 69.0 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 30.4 31.2 28.0 2.1 79.8 72.1 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 29.8 30.5 29.8 2.1 77.9 69.6 27.2 28.0 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.2 31.8 29.4 1.8 77.8 69.2 27.5 29.5 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 24.1 24.4 25.5 1.5 74.2 65.5 21.2 22.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 29.4 29.8 31.0 2.0 75.4 68.0 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------