***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.1 30.1 2.8 82.9 76.6 26.3 27.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 29.0 29.9 30.3 2.9 80.6 75.1 25.8 26.8 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.4 29.9 2.6 78.1 74.2 25.9 27.2 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 22.5 23.7 28.3 2.5 83.6 76.4 18.7 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 30.2 31.4 28.0 2.4 82.5 75.0 25.9 27.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 28.0 29.0 25.6 2.1 84.0 76.0 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 28.9 29.8 30.4 3.0 81.9 76.1 25.4 27.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 17.8 18.8 26.1 2.3 82.7 74.7 14.7 15.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.6 28.3 2.4 79.9 74.2 25.3 27.3 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.2 26.8 2.3 80.3 74.1 25.1 27.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 29.6 31.0 27.6 2.5 84.7 76.5 25.2 27.3 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 28.6 29.7 27.5 2.6 85.5 77.3 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 29.7 30.9 26.9 2.5 84.6 77.3 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 29.5 30.1 27.6 2.4 75.7 72.2 26.1 27.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 30.1 31.6 29.1 2.6 89.3 78.9 27.1 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 30.3 31.6 27.4 2.4 83.5 77.0 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 28.5 29.2 30.0 2.8 80.3 74.0 24.9 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 28.7 29.2 25.9 2.3 77.3 73.1 24.7 26.8 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 28.8 29.5 30.2 2.8 78.5 74.5 25.1 26.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 24.0 24.5 23.6 2.0 76.6 70.9 20.3 21.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 29.6 30.6 29.2 2.5 79.9 74.5 25.5 27.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 29.0 29.6 29.6 2.6 76.8 72.2 25.1 26.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 29.2 30.0 29.6 2.7 77.8 74.0 25.4 26.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 29.1 29.8 27.7 2.4 76.2 73.2 25.5 26.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.8 28.4 2.7 83.5 76.9 25.8 27.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 29.0 30.3 27.0 2.5 85.2 77.7 25.9 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 28.7 29.9 29.2 2.8 83.8 77.4 25.9 26.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 30.0 31.4 28.7 2.5 85.3 77.4 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 24.2 24.8 24.8 2.2 76.9 72.2 19.7 22.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 29.3 30.1 30.4 2.8 80.9 75.5 25.7 27.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------