***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 28.1 28.7 29.6 2.4 82.2 73.3 26.1 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 27.7 28.7 29.9 2.4 81.3 72.7 25.8 26.6 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 27.8 28.5 29.5 2.1 79.4 71.2 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 21.2 22.0 27.8 2.2 79.6 73.2 18.6 19.8 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 28.4 29.1 27.7 2.2 80.1 72.4 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 27.3 28.0 25.4 2.1 77.1 73.4 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 27.5 28.4 29.9 2.5 81.6 73.2 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 16.8 18.0 25.9 2.2 80.6 73.9 13.3 14.6 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 27.8 29.0 28.0 2.1 81.5 71.7 24.6 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 27.7 28.7 26.5 2.1 80.1 72.1 25.3 25.7 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 28.2 29.3 27.2 2.3 80.0 74.3 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 27.5 28.2 27.3 2.5 81.9 76.4 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 28.7 29.5 26.6 2.5 80.1 75.5 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 27.2 27.2 27.2 1.7 73.6 66.8 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 28.5 29.2 28.5 2.4 80.5 75.2 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 29.1 29.9 27.1 2.4 80.3 75.0 26.2 26.9 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 27.1 27.7 29.4 2.2 80.0 69.8 24.9 26.0 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 27.1 27.9 25.7 2.0 79.7 70.9 24.1 25.4 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 26.8 27.6 29.8 2.3 80.7 71.9 24.9 26.0 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 22.8 24.0 23.6 1.9 79.0 71.6 19.6 20.9 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 28.0 29.0 28.9 2.2 80.8 71.9 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 27.3 27.5 28.9 1.9 73.3 67.3 24.9 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 27.6 28.6 29.2 2.2 80.0 70.6 25.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 26.9 27.4 27.4 1.9 77.3 69.3 24.5 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 28.3 29.1 27.9 2.3 82.0 73.1 25.6 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 27.9 28.6 26.8 2.6 82.3 77.2 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 27.4 28.6 28.7 2.4 83.0 73.8 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 28.8 29.6 28.2 2.4 79.6 74.6 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 22.3 23.1 24.7 2.0 78.2 70.5 18.8 20.6 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 27.6 28.4 30.0 2.4 81.2 73.1 25.3 26.5 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------