***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 28.1 29.1 29.0 2.3 80.0 75.4 25.2 26.2 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 28.0 28.9 29.7 2.7 80.4 77.5 25.1 25.8 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 27.3 27.7 28.8 2.1 72.0 72.4 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 20.3 20.4 25.9 1.8 67.0 69.8 17.9 19.3 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 26.9 27.6 26.5 1.6 63.3 66.5 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 25.4 25.7 23.1 0.9 59.2 60.3 23.8 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 27.6 28.6 29.6 2.8 81.6 78.5 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 15.9 15.6 24.1 1.3 64.8 65.3 13.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 27.2 27.3 27.6 1.8 68.0 69.6 24.5 25.7 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 27.1 26.7 25.4 1.5 65.1 66.7 24.7 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 26.9 27.3 26.1 1.5 62.8 66.4 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 26.8 26.7 25.4 1.7 68.6 69.0 24.1 25.6 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 27.9 28.0 25.4 1.6 66.9 66.4 25.4 26.6 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 27.1 27.1 26.9 1.7 69.8 68.9 23.9 26.0 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.0 28.2 2.0 72.6 73.3 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 28.2 28.5 25.9 1.6 65.7 66.7 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 27.2 27.6 29.0 2.4 77.0 74.5 24.5 25.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 25.6 26.3 24.4 1.4 64.0 65.6 23.9 25.3 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 27.0 27.6 29.3 2.5 77.9 75.3 24.2 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 22.0 22.1 21.8 1.1 63.8 62.8 19.6 20.4 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 27.5 27.2 28.5 1.9 67.4 70.4 24.8 26.1 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 27.5 27.5 28.4 2.1 75.5 72.1 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 27.3 28.0 28.6 2.2 76.0 72.8 24.3 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 26.6 26.3 26.7 1.6 66.0 68.0 24.1 25.3 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 27.7 28.0 27.4 2.0 71.3 71.7 25.2 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 27.8 27.5 24.5 1.6 69.4 68.0 24.5 26.6 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 27.5 28.2 28.3 2.3 77.6 75.0 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 28.5 28.5 26.9 1.8 68.9 70.7 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 22.0 21.8 23.5 1.3 65.4 65.1 19.2 20.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 27.5 28.5 29.7 2.7 80.8 77.7 24.8 25.6 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------