***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 15.3 16.1 18.6 1.3 87.1 80.7 14.6 15.0 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 15.4 16.4 18.8 1.5 87.1 81.2 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 17.2 17.7 18.4 1.1 82.2 77.2 15.9 16.3 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 12.7 13.1 16.2 1.1 83.4 77.4 10.9 11.7 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 14.1 14.4 15.9 1.0 81.8 76.8 12.7 13.4 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.2 13.8 0.9 81.0 76.2 12.0 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 15.6 16.4 19.0 1.6 89.6 82.7 14.2 14.9 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 8.1 8.6 13.8 1.0 86.0 78.6 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 15.0 15.4 16.3 1.0 84.6 78.3 14.1 14.4 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 14.9 15.3 14.6 0.9 83.3 77.4 14.0 14.3 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 14.9 15.3 15.5 1.1 87.1 79.7 13.8 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 12.9 13.5 15.0 1.2 89.3 81.8 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 14.4 14.7 14.4 1.0 84.6 79.3 13.4 13.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 15.6 15.9 16.2 0.9 81.3 75.0 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.7 17.3 1.1 86.0 79.0 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 15.4 15.8 15.2 1.1 86.0 79.8 14.1 14.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 15.9 16.6 18.3 1.3 84.5 78.6 14.6 15.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 13.6 13.9 13.9 0.9 81.0 76.7 12.5 13.1 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 15.3 15.8 18.6 1.4 85.0 79.8 14.1 14.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 9.3 9.5 11.8 0.9 79.7 76.0 8.3 8.9 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 14.9 15.6 17.7 1.1 85.7 78.4 13.8 14.5 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 15.0 15.4 18.2 1.2 84.2 77.1 13.7 14.3 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 14.7 15.1 18.1 1.2 84.0 78.6 13.7 14.3 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.4 16.0 0.9 80.7 75.2 14.2 14.8 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.2 17.0 1.1 83.2 77.3 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 14.0 14.4 14.4 1.0 86.6 80.7 12.9 13.4 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 15.0 15.5 17.8 1.4 87.9 81.2 13.7 14.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 14.1 14.7 16.8 1.2 89.0 80.8 12.9 13.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 12.1 12.4 13.2 1.0 82.3 77.9 10.8 11.2 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 15.8 16.6 19.0 1.5 86.5 81.3 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------