***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.6 16.8 19.3 1.2 75.0 68.6 15.2 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 16.6 17.1 19.4 1.2 75.6 68.5 14.0 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 18.2 18.3 19.0 0.9 71.5 65.4 16.4 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 13.7 13.8 17.1 1.0 72.2 66.9 12.0 12.4 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.6 16.7 1.0 72.7 66.0 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 14.1 14.5 14.7 0.9 75.1 65.8 12.8 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.0 19.5 1.4 76.0 69.9 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.6 14.6 1.0 73.0 67.1 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.7 16.9 0.9 72.7 65.5 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.3 15.2 0.9 71.4 65.2 14.8 15.1 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.3 16.2 1.1 74.7 67.7 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.5 15.9 1.2 77.0 69.8 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.7 15.3 1.0 74.0 68.1 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 16.7 16.9 16.7 0.8 71.1 64.1 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 17.5 17.6 18.0 1.2 75.9 69.5 16.1 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 16.6 17.1 16.1 1.1 75.4 68.8 15.2 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.4 18.9 1.2 73.6 67.2 14.9 16.1 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 14.8 15.0 14.6 0.8 72.3 65.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 16.4 16.7 19.2 1.1 74.7 67.4 14.6 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 10.6 10.7 12.6 0.8 70.3 64.5 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.4 18.2 1.0 72.4 66.2 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.9 16.1 18.7 1.0 71.9 65.5 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.0 18.7 1.0 73.8 66.0 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.6 16.6 0.8 70.2 64.5 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.2 17.6 1.0 73.2 67.1 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.5 15.5 1.2 76.0 70.1 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 16.1 16.5 18.4 1.2 75.2 69.3 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.6 17.6 1.2 75.7 69.0 14.1 14.2 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.5 14.1 13.8 0.9 73.0 66.0 11.7 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.2 19.5 1.2 75.4 68.3 14.8 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------