***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.6 16.6 19.0 1.5 80.3 71.5 14.2 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.7 16.6 19.2 1.6 81.2 70.8 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 17.7 18.7 18.8 1.3 76.7 68.6 15.5 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.7 16.7 1.1 76.1 68.7 10.2 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.3 16.3 1.1 77.2 68.8 12.3 13.3 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.0 13.4 14.4 1.2 80.7 71.6 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.5 17.1 19.3 1.7 82.7 72.4 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 8.3 8.9 14.3 1.2 79.4 71.3 6.6 7.2 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 15.3 16.1 16.6 1.1 77.2 67.8 13.6 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.8 15.0 1.1 77.1 68.6 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 15.1 15.8 15.9 1.3 80.3 72.1 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 12.9 13.8 15.7 1.5 82.9 75.5 11.7 12.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 14.4 15.0 15.1 1.4 82.1 75.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.6 16.6 1.1 74.5 68.0 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.5 17.6 1.2 78.1 70.1 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 15.2 16.0 15.8 1.4 81.4 73.8 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.1 16.8 18.6 1.4 78.3 68.0 14.6 15.1 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.0 14.4 14.3 1.1 76.6 69.6 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.7 19.0 1.5 79.4 70.0 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 9.6 9.7 12.2 1.1 75.6 69.0 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.7 18.0 1.2 77.5 68.8 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.7 18.5 1.3 75.0 67.0 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.9 18.5 1.4 78.6 69.7 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.8 16.4 1.1 74.3 68.3 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.1 17.3 1.3 76.8 69.5 13.1 14.3 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.7 15.1 1.3 82.6 74.5 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 15.0 16.0 18.2 1.6 81.2 72.0 13.0 13.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.5 17.2 1.3 79.1 71.6 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.8 13.1 13.6 1.2 77.3 70.8 10.1 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.8 17.3 19.3 1.6 81.6 71.3 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------