***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 15.5 15.8 17.5 1.0 66.8 64.2 14.2 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.4 17.7 1.3 69.8 68.3 13.2 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.7 17.2 0.7 63.7 60.2 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.2 14.6 0.5 55.5 55.5 10.1 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 13.0 12.8 14.5 0.2 45.3 48.5 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 12.1 11.7 11.8 -0.1 43.0 43.2 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 15.5 15.8 17.9 1.4 71.3 70.6 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 6.8 6.5 12.1 0.1 49.3 49.5 6.0 6.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 14.1 14.3 15.3 0.6 58.6 57.1 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 13.9 13.8 13.3 0.3 53.2 53.2 13.4 13.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.4 13.9 0.2 48.2 49.4 13.0 13.5 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 11.9 11.6 12.9 0.1 49.8 49.3 11.0 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.7 12.8 12.5 -0.2 36.6 39.1 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.9 15.0 0.3 57.6 54.3 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.2 16.2 0.5 52.4 53.4 14.1 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.6 13.8 13.4 0.0 41.6 43.9 13.3 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 15.8 15.7 17.2 1.1 69.4 66.5 13.6 14.9 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.9 12.4 0.2 51.3 51.3 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.0 17.5 1.1 67.4 65.7 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 8.4 8.4 10.1 0.2 52.6 52.4 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 14.1 14.5 16.8 0.6 62.0 59.0 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.7 17.2 1.0 68.3 66.0 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.5 17.0 0.8 65.2 63.1 13.0 14.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.2 14.7 0.2 54.6 53.2 13.3 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.3 16.1 0.5 58.3 56.5 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 13.0 12.4 12.1 0.0 45.0 45.7 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 14.4 14.5 16.8 0.9 65.5 62.8 13.0 14.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 13.1 13.1 15.2 0.6 57.6 57.5 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 10.9 11.1 11.7 0.3 55.2 54.7 9.8 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.7 18.0 1.3 70.5 69.1 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------