***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 73.6 78.3 69.5 109.9 61.3 55.9 57.8 66.5 86.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 53.0 78.9 56.4 99.5 58.4 51.4 54.4 66.6 87.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 84.8 97.8 72.4 113.3 64.4 56.9 65.2 74.2 100.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 94.0 90.0 78.2 126.2 71.3 65.1 50.4 59.8 88.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 61.9 91.1 78.9 128.8 70.9 64.9 47.8 54.4 77.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 72.8 82.0 92.2 135.1 77.4 69.5 42.2 52.7 75.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 50.6 65.6 55.0 96.1 55.0 49.8 55.1 64.2 70.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 124.4 161.2 102.5 147.4 82.9 73.7 64.3 74.4 121.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 70.9 89.4 85.1 128.1 71.0 64.8 44.5 65.7 89.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 107.6 121.3 104.3 141.2 79.7 71.2 68.6 86.8 98.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 79.8 93.0 82.7 146.2 80.5 71.5 45.5 62.6 77.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 72.3 86.8 82.3 147.2 81.9 72.1 45.4 52.4 61.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 65.2 67.8 81.5 140.0 75.1 69.0 34.7 44.2 57.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 100.6 124.7 95.5 120.7 71.5 61.4 65.7 92.6 114.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 65.5 75.2 67.2 135.3 76.6 67.3 31.8 45.8 63.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 63.5 69.2 79.4 142.0 77.6 70.0 32.8 51.0 57.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 73.6 65.1 50.2 90.9 49.7 46.6 42.3 65.8 83.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 95.3 104.8 112.4 136.6 77.4 71.1 58.5 72.3 96.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 53.6 83.9 60.9 103.8 61.6 53.2 51.7 72.1 85.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 84.4 97.9 114.3 144.4 83.3 75.5 56.0 61.0 88.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 66.2 85.7 76.6 118.8 65.4 60.3 47.6 60.2 85.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 46.9 62.5 54.5 94.3 53.5 48.6 40.8 57.7 75.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 58.0 87.1 68.4 109.8 64.6 55.5 56.9 74.3 88.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 118.3 121.1 93.8 124.4 71.4 64.1 76.8 86.6 110.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 78.9 79.2 77.6 114.4 65.4 58.9 51.3 74.3 79.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 68.9 78.9 69.9 141.0 78.0 70.2 35.0 47.9 74.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 84.5 94.8 73.8 109.5 62.0 56.3 62.2 79.0 100.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 65.1 74.5 78.3 138.2 77.5 69.2 38.6 45.9 65.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 124.9 138.9 116.4 138.2 79.9 72.7 63.7 100.9 116.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 62.8 83.7 61.0 104.0 61.4 53.2 65.6 76.6 88.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------