***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.9 22.2 13.0 98.9 65.1 48.9 7.9 11.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.2 24.4 12.4 109.2 67.5 52.2 7.4 13.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.5 20.6 14.2 108.4 68.3 51.4 8.1 13.3 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.5 12.2 98.2 63.9 51.7 3.8 7.2 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.8 13.5 13.1 107.0 65.6 52.5 4.1 10.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.7 11.6 82.4 55.3 45.1 3.7 4.9 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.2 16.1 12.1 102.5 64.5 51.2 8.3 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.3 14.8 102.4 61.3 51.3 11.7 17.9 29.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.1 16.4 14.5 105.4 65.3 51.1 3.3 9.5 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.6 16.9 106.8 63.4 52.4 10.6 14.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.4 13.8 11.4 108.5 64.8 52.7 5.2 7.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.8 10.9 101.6 62.7 50.5 6.2 13.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.0 11.8 101.2 63.1 49.2 3.9 6.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.0 29.0 18.7 108.6 64.0 52.4 7.9 15.2 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.7 8.7 89.6 64.6 51.5 1.1 2.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.1 7.8 11.4 103.4 65.7 50.1 3.5 4.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.9 20.5 11.2 97.8 62.9 51.1 4.2 13.0 22.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 19.4 24.8 19.7 105.6 60.9 51.4 12.3 17.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 15.2 13.0 109.6 69.2 52.3 4.6 8.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.3 20.3 17.5 96.8 57.0 48.6 10.0 16.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.7 17.3 14.0 107.2 65.3 51.4 7.8 11.1 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.3 17.3 11.8 97.6 64.2 50.3 7.4 13.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.9 23.7 13.9 109.2 69.6 52.2 7.5 13.0 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.0 33.0 18.0 110.6 65.4 52.5 6.2 15.5 33.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.7 13.2 14.3 105.3 65.5 51.5 5.4 7.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.5 8.6 98.4 63.4 47.4 3.9 6.2 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.6 22.0 13.7 98.5 62.7 49.0 8.9 14.3 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.4 13.9 10.7 93.1 63.9 50.6 1.4 4.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.4 20.0 103.3 59.6 50.2 10.1 19.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.7 22.0 13.0 110.3 68.0 51.4 8.2 13.3 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------