***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 11.3 14.2 16.0 109.8 66.8 54.2 5.1 9.5 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 14.2 18.0 13.2 95.1 66.1 51.0 5.5 11.8 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.9 14.4 92.3 61.3 50.6 6.5 12.1 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.2 11.2 76.8 55.9 46.9 3.1 9.6 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.0 11.9 11.6 80.9 58.7 48.8 3.2 5.8 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.6 14.5 13.9 91.0 62.4 50.9 0.5 4.2 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.3 13.5 100.4 65.9 52.7 7.1 9.0 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.7 14.6 91.7 59.6 48.7 3.9 9.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.1 8.0 13.2 86.3 60.6 50.9 1.3 4.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.3 8.8 15.1 88.3 58.6 49.7 3.0 7.2 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 7.4 10.8 90.0 64.3 51.3 1.1 3.4 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.6 11.7 92.2 63.4 49.8 0.6 4.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.2 8.0 12.5 92.5 64.9 53.4 1.9 3.5 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.5 13.4 17.4 86.2 60.4 48.9 6.1 11.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.8 9.3 77.9 59.7 47.7 1.5 3.0 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.4 11.2 88.4 64.2 52.0 1.3 4.4 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.3 15.3 12.6 95.1 64.5 49.2 5.0 9.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 13.1 16.7 83.9 55.2 48.0 1.4 7.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.3 15.8 13.2 91.1 64.8 50.4 4.2 11.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.6 17.0 92.1 58.2 49.9 4.4 10.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.6 16.3 13.2 87.0 60.7 50.1 1.6 9.0 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.5 12.5 85.8 63.2 48.5 5.0 8.4 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.2 13.0 84.4 61.8 49.2 6.1 11.4 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.3 21.0 15.3 81.2 57.7 48.3 5.9 14.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.9 16.6 16.0 101.8 65.0 51.9 6.4 12.2 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.3 9.4 87.9 62.4 51.5 0.5 5.8 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.4 20.1 17.3 112.6 67.0 54.5 4.6 11.2 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.1 10.2 75.2 57.7 47.4 1.8 4.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.1 18.2 88.4 57.2 49.2 7.0 12.8 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 17.7 13.8 96.5 64.8 51.5 7.2 12.5 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------