***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.2 13.8 20.8 110.2 62.0 53.9 4.6 8.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.7 19.9 17.2 100.9 63.3 51.4 8.0 10.7 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.1 23.7 21.8 110.6 62.4 54.8 5.0 9.0 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 31.9 35.4 25.2 137.8 73.9 62.5 4.4 12.2 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 30.0 34.4 25.0 133.7 74.0 62.3 3.2 15.5 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 22.4 26.5 28.0 143.8 75.6 64.8 2.8 9.2 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.4 16.7 99.0 61.3 51.3 7.1 9.5 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 31.4 37.9 27.3 144.0 74.2 63.4 8.2 16.7 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 24.2 27.7 26.1 131.7 73.3 62.3 6.8 14.5 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 34.5 38.2 27.7 137.8 73.6 63.5 8.2 21.8 32.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 24.9 28.9 25.2 138.9 74.3 62.1 6.0 16.1 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.4 23.3 22.6 137.5 73.4 60.6 3.2 6.8 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 20.5 25.0 27.3 149.7 78.7 65.9 6.5 10.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.1 25.8 114.5 63.8 58.2 12.1 21.4 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.7 26.6 23.2 158.4 79.4 64.9 1.1 3.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 20.4 27.0 25.7 149.3 78.1 64.8 5.4 10.2 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.2 14.7 88.5 56.9 47.5 3.9 7.9 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 25.8 27.3 28.2 131.2 71.8 62.0 5.9 15.8 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.9 19.5 18.0 103.5 62.4 52.5 6.9 12.1 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 24.9 31.2 31.4 146.1 77.0 64.6 8.7 13.3 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.8 17.9 23.3 118.5 66.8 58.1 4.7 8.9 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.5 16.6 97.8 59.1 51.0 3.2 8.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.0 16.2 19.6 106.1 61.6 54.6 5.7 10.7 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.7 39.5 26.7 125.3 68.7 61.5 9.4 19.2 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.3 32.0 25.7 121.7 68.8 59.3 4.5 10.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 19.9 24.0 22.3 135.8 73.1 63.3 4.5 10.5 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 21.5 23.5 114.5 65.2 56.0 6.9 11.5 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 21.4 24.6 24.3 151.2 76.9 64.6 3.9 13.7 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 36.4 41.0 33.3 142.5 75.6 66.1 11.1 18.9 33.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.5 23.1 18.6 105.7 63.2 52.7 5.2 15.6 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------