***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 19.9 32.4 19.6 118.7 65.1 56.8 5.5 15.9 33.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 21.6 26.2 13.7 94.5 58.8 50.8 12.7 18.9 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 25.8 39.0 21.9 142.2 74.1 63.3 10.8 23.1 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 32.5 44.5 29.6 177.7 81.7 74.1 10.0 16.9 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 22.7 34.6 29.1 182.7 82.4 71.9 7.6 14.4 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 33.2 42.7 38.7 198.2 85.6 79.8 13.6 19.5 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 14.2 12.8 12.7 84.2 56.3 46.6 8.9 11.9 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 34.7 50.1 45.8 225.2 91.4 81.8 13.0 18.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 29.0 38.5 31.4 178.7 84.1 71.0 11.9 17.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 30.8 54.3 44.6 212.2 89.4 78.1 5.2 17.6 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 24.2 33.8 35.2 224.2 88.1 76.7 10.3 14.9 23.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 18.6 47.0 37.1 231.5 90.8 81.5 5.4 11.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 23.6 32.6 30.0 199.8 84.1 75.6 6.5 14.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 29.9 36.9 33.7 173.8 82.1 71.1 11.9 14.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 24.8 37.7 26.0 197.5 83.6 72.7 2.3 8.8 20.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 17.9 31.0 31.1 206.7 86.8 77.0 2.7 8.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.9 12.8 11.8 84.2 53.9 47.6 7.6 11.5 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 23.6 45.3 47.8 216.6 90.9 81.0 10.7 16.7 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 21.7 22.8 16.7 112.2 65.4 56.0 9.0 19.9 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 33.9 53.3 48.5 232.1 93.0 84.9 6.9 15.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 24.2 31.2 26.2 157.2 79.1 66.4 9.3 12.8 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.6 19.9 13.6 96.1 62.0 52.1 11.1 15.8 23.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 17.7 22.0 21.8 140.4 73.8 63.2 11.2 16.8 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 29.2 39.3 33.9 178.0 83.0 72.0 14.6 21.5 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.9 25.0 21.5 124.0 69.2 58.6 6.0 8.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 19.8 40.8 29.6 214.4 87.2 79.3 1.9 6.9 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.6 28.0 19.3 109.7 64.6 54.7 4.0 8.4 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 27.4 35.9 33.1 215.3 87.3 77.5 5.8 12.4 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 33.0 47.3 44.9 213.9 90.5 81.4 13.3 23.5 31.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 22.0 22.4 15.4 104.5 62.4 53.4 13.0 19.8 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------