***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 27.3 26.9 26.7 -0.4 46.1 45.2 26.5 26.9 27.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 25.9 26.5 26.6 -0.6 39.7 42.3 26.3 27.0 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 26.0 26.6 26.8 -0.5 42.6 43.6 26.3 26.8 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 19.0 19.6 23.9 -0.5 37.1 40.8 19.3 19.9 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 26.2 25.8 24.3 -0.9 30.9 34.7 26.1 27.3 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 24.4 24.2 21.5 -1.2 23.5 28.3 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.4 26.6 -0.4 43.5 45.5 25.9 26.6 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 14.1 14.6 22.2 -1.1 28.6 32.7 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 25.6 25.7 24.7 -0.9 31.6 35.5 25.8 26.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 25.3 25.5 23.0 -0.9 30.7 34.8 25.6 26.5 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 25.5 25.6 24.2 -1.2 25.8 31.1 25.9 27.0 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 24.8 24.8 23.5 -1.3 25.2 30.2 25.3 26.4 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 25.6 25.2 23.0 -1.6 18.3 25.6 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 25.7 26.2 24.6 -0.6 38.6 41.0 25.7 26.5 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 26.8 26.7 25.7 -0.8 31.3 36.4 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 26.5 26.2 23.6 -1.3 22.7 29.0 26.6 27.9 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.3 26.5 -0.3 46.7 47.0 25.9 26.3 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 24.8 25.1 22.3 -0.8 32.6 36.3 25.2 26.1 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 25.4 25.9 26.7 -0.6 40.9 42.8 25.8 26.2 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 20.4 20.7 19.8 -1.0 30.7 34.1 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 26.0 26.5 25.9 -0.6 39.8 40.6 26.1 26.9 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 25.7 26.8 26.4 -0.3 49.1 47.5 26.3 26.8 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 25.7 26.4 26.6 -0.5 42.4 43.5 26.0 26.5 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 25.3 25.4 24.5 -0.6 36.1 40.3 25.2 26.2 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 27.3 26.2 24.9 -0.6 38.8 41.2 26.1 27.0 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 25.2 25.0 22.8 -1.6 21.0 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.2 25.8 -0.5 43.7 43.9 26.0 26.6 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.8 27.1 24.5 -0.8 31.3 36.8 27.2 27.6 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 20.0 20.6 21.4 -0.9 31.6 35.3 20.7 21.4 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 26.9 26.3 26.6 -0.6 41.9 43.3 26.0 26.6 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------