***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 25.8 27.4 26.9 -0.7 41.9 43.9 25.6 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 25.2 26.0 26.7 -0.9 40.6 43.1 24.8 27.3 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.1 25.7 27.2 -0.5 44.5 45.6 24.9 27.6 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.1 20.1 24.8 -0.5 42.2 45.0 17.8 20.9 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.1 26.1 24.9 -0.9 41.0 42.1 25.7 27.5 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 27.0 24.8 22.3 -1.0 38.7 40.2 24.3 26.5 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 24.9 26.0 26.7 -0.8 40.1 43.5 24.7 26.9 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.0 23.3 -0.9 42.7 43.1 13.8 15.8 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 27.6 25.6 25.0 -0.8 42.3 42.9 24.9 26.9 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 27.4 25.6 23.8 -0.7 43.6 44.1 25.1 26.8 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.5 25.4 24.6 -1.1 39.9 40.5 25.2 26.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 26.9 25.2 24.5 -1.2 39.4 40.2 24.7 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 25.4 25.5 23.3 -1.4 35.2 37.7 25.4 27.5 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.0 26.7 24.9 -0.6 45.2 45.2 25.2 27.6 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 28.9 26.5 25.8 -0.9 39.9 41.5 25.9 28.5 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 28.7 26.0 24.1 -1.2 37.3 39.3 25.8 28.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.6 25.8 26.7 -0.6 42.8 45.3 24.6 26.4 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.9 25.7 23.3 -0.5 46.2 45.9 24.3 26.3 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 27.2 25.7 26.9 -0.8 42.1 43.6 24.3 26.5 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.4 20.7 -0.6 46.8 45.4 20.2 21.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 28.0 25.6 26.2 -0.6 43.2 45.1 25.0 27.3 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 24.9 26.2 26.6 -0.6 43.0 45.6 24.6 26.5 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 27.5 25.7 27.0 -0.7 43.3 44.5 24.6 26.8 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.2 25.9 25.0 -0.5 45.3 46.1 24.6 26.7 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 28.2 25.9 25.0 -0.7 41.7 43.9 25.4 27.8 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 25.3 25.3 23.8 -1.5 35.0 37.2 25.3 27.4 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 25.3 25.5 25.9 -0.7 41.5 43.7 25.1 27.3 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 28.8 27.0 25.1 -0.7 40.5 42.9 26.4 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 21.0 22.3 -0.6 46.2 45.7 19.5 22.0 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.6 25.9 26.8 -0.8 40.9 43.3 24.4 26.9 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------