***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 27.5 26.0 25.6 -0.5 40.2 41.0 25.2 27.2 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 26.6 25.5 25.6 -0.9 39.8 38.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.3 25.3 -1.0 36.0 36.2 24.7 26.5 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 17.8 17.6 21.4 -1.3 29.9 31.2 17.6 19.9 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 23.9 23.8 22.4 -1.8 24.4 26.8 25.3 27.0 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 21.7 21.6 19.1 -2.5 17.9 20.1 23.7 25.5 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 26.3 25.6 25.7 -0.5 43.5 42.5 24.3 26.0 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 11.4 11.2 19.5 -2.4 20.0 22.3 13.1 14.5 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 23.2 23.2 23.4 -1.7 25.4 27.8 25.0 26.5 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 23.0 23.0 20.8 -2.1 22.3 24.8 24.8 26.4 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 23.3 23.2 22.4 -2.3 19.8 23.5 25.1 26.8 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 22.0 21.7 20.8 -2.4 19.2 22.0 24.3 25.7 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 22.8 22.6 21.4 -2.8 16.0 18.6 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 23.9 24.2 23.3 -1.4 31.2 31.9 24.3 26.0 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 25.3 25.1 24.4 -1.5 27.1 28.8 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 23.7 23.6 21.6 -2.5 17.8 21.3 25.5 27.6 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 25.9 25.3 25.6 -0.5 44.5 44.0 24.1 25.6 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 22.0 21.8 19.8 -2.1 21.7 24.6 24.5 25.4 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 26.0 24.9 25.6 -0.9 38.8 37.9 24.0 25.7 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 17.0 17.1 17.3 -2.4 20.3 21.1 19.7 20.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 23.8 25.0 24.6 -1.3 30.6 32.4 25.1 26.7 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 26.2 25.4 25.5 -0.4 45.1 44.7 24.8 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 26.3 25.1 25.4 -0.9 37.7 37.2 24.2 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 23.0 23.8 23.0 -1.6 27.0 29.9 24.2 25.8 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 24.7 25.3 23.8 -1.2 31.4 33.7 25.3 26.7 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 22.7 22.7 19.8 -2.9 16.1 18.0 24.7 26.4 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.6 25.7 24.8 -0.7 37.8 38.9 24.5 26.1 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 25.3 24.6 22.4 -1.7 25.2 27.4 25.9 27.7 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 16.7 16.7 18.9 -2.2 21.8 23.0 19.5 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.5 25.2 25.7 -0.8 40.0 38.7 24.5 26.0 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------