***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.4 14.6 16.4 -0.5 41.0 40.8 14.5 14.8 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.1 16.2 -0.6 36.8 39.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.0 16.6 -0.4 41.0 42.1 15.9 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.0 14.0 -0.4 41.1 42.4 10.7 11.6 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.9 14.2 -0.5 38.5 39.2 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.9 11.8 -0.5 33.6 35.9 11.9 12.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.3 14.5 16.3 -0.5 39.9 41.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.9 11.8 -0.4 38.9 39.6 6.8 7.3 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.2 14.4 -0.4 41.4 41.6 14.1 14.3 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.1 12.7 -0.4 41.6 41.7 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.8 13.8 -0.5 39.0 38.6 13.7 14.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.7 12.7 -0.5 36.5 37.3 11.6 12.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.3 12.4 -0.5 34.8 37.1 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.9 14.5 -0.1 47.6 47.8 14.4 14.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.9 15.5 -0.5 39.1 39.2 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.0 13.2 -0.5 35.0 37.2 14.0 14.3 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.5 14.8 16.1 -0.4 42.5 42.6 14.7 15.0 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.8 12.1 -0.3 44.2 43.9 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.2 16.3 -0.5 38.1 41.0 14.1 14.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.0 8.6 9.9 -0.3 42.7 43.3 8.2 8.9 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.2 15.7 -0.4 42.6 42.6 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.0 16.2 -0.3 44.0 44.7 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.6 13.9 16.3 -0.4 41.3 43.4 13.7 14.2 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.4 14.3 -0.2 45.1 45.7 14.1 14.6 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 13.6 13.9 15.0 -0.6 36.7 37.8 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.5 12.8 11.8 -0.5 33.9 36.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.6 13.8 15.7 -0.6 37.5 38.6 13.7 14.3 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.0 14.4 -0.4 40.3 40.9 12.8 13.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.1 11.4 -0.3 44.6 44.3 10.7 11.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.4 16.5 -0.5 37.3 40.3 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------