***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.9 16.0 17.5 -0.1 52.2 49.2 15.2 16.0 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.7 17.3 -0.2 49.4 48.4 14.5 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 16.2 17.9 17.8 -0.1 53.1 50.1 16.6 17.9 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.3 13.0 15.2 0.0 52.0 50.5 11.5 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.4 15.0 -0.2 48.4 47.3 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.2 13.1 -0.2 46.1 46.4 12.3 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.4 16.1 17.4 -0.1 51.4 49.5 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 8.1 12.9 -0.3 46.5 45.9 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.3 15.1 -0.2 47.1 47.3 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 13.8 15.0 13.6 -0.2 47.0 47.0 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 13.8 15.0 14.5 -0.4 46.2 45.1 14.2 15.2 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.9 13.7 -0.3 45.2 45.3 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 13.3 14.5 13.1 -0.3 45.1 45.7 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.7 15.3 0.0 52.3 50.9 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.1 16.6 16.6 -0.2 48.7 47.6 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.6 14.0 -0.3 46.4 46.7 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 14.8 16.0 17.2 -0.1 50.6 49.8 15.1 16.0 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.8 12.9 -0.1 49.8 49.7 13.1 13.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.7 17.5 -0.2 51.5 49.0 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.8 10.7 -0.1 51.2 49.9 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.4 16.6 -0.1 50.3 49.4 14.2 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.8 15.0 17.2 0.0 52.2 50.7 13.8 14.8 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.9 15.4 17.4 -0.1 53.7 50.3 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.0 15.7 15.1 0.0 51.5 50.5 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.2 16.0 -0.1 50.3 49.3 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 13.1 14.3 12.9 -0.3 48.4 45.9 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.1 15.3 16.7 -0.1 51.3 49.5 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.4 15.6 -0.1 49.8 49.2 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.5 12.3 -0.1 50.1 49.2 11.6 12.5 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 14.7 16.4 17.6 -0.2 50.9 49.0 14.7 16.3 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------