***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 13.9 14.2 16.5 -0.8 36.4 40.8 14.1 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 13.2 14.0 16.3 -0.9 35.1 39.9 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 15.1 15.2 16.7 -0.8 37.4 40.5 15.2 16.1 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 9.9 9.8 13.9 -0.9 30.5 38.5 10.0 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 11.9 12.1 13.9 -1.0 30.0 37.0 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 11.1 10.8 11.9 -1.0 28.5 36.2 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 13.8 13.9 16.4 -0.8 35.3 40.5 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 5.9 6.1 11.7 -1.0 28.2 36.1 6.3 7.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.7 14.1 -0.9 32.0 37.9 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.4 12.5 -0.9 29.9 37.2 13.7 14.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 13.1 13.2 13.3 -1.1 25.4 34.6 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 11.0 11.4 12.5 -1.1 27.4 35.7 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 12.6 12.4 11.9 -1.1 27.9 35.9 12.5 13.6 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 13.8 14.3 14.2 -0.8 33.6 39.6 14.3 14.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 14.6 14.8 15.3 -1.0 29.9 36.3 14.8 15.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.3 12.7 -1.1 26.9 35.1 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.3 16.3 -0.7 37.5 41.7 14.2 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 11.7 12.2 11.8 -0.8 33.7 38.4 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 13.5 13.8 16.3 -0.9 34.9 39.8 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.1 9.6 -0.8 32.6 38.4 8.1 8.7 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 13.3 13.8 15.5 -0.8 34.9 39.8 13.7 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 13.3 13.4 16.1 -0.8 37.0 41.8 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 13.1 13.3 16.2 -0.9 35.3 39.7 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 13.4 14.1 14.0 -0.8 35.8 39.5 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 12.9 13.4 14.9 -0.9 34.1 39.9 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 12.3 12.4 11.8 -1.0 28.1 37.1 12.5 13.2 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.5 15.7 -0.8 36.4 40.9 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.4 14.3 -0.9 29.7 37.4 12.5 13.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.2 10.0 11.2 -0.9 32.9 38.0 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 13.6 14.0 16.5 -0.9 35.4 40.0 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------