***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.9 13.9 16.1 -0.5 42.3 43.6 13.8 14.5 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.4 15.9 -0.6 41.8 41.6 12.8 13.8 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.3 16.3 -0.5 43.8 43.0 14.7 15.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.5 13.7 -0.5 40.8 42.6 9.4 10.7 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.1 14.0 -0.6 38.1 40.9 12.0 12.8 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.0 11.5 -0.6 33.6 38.5 11.0 11.4 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.0 15.9 -0.6 43.7 42.9 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.2 11.3 -0.7 35.7 38.1 5.0 6.4 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.4 14.1 -0.6 38.3 40.7 13.1 13.9 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.0 12.3 -0.7 37.1 39.5 12.8 13.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.0 12.9 13.5 -0.7 34.6 38.3 12.9 13.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.7 12.3 -0.8 33.9 37.0 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.2 12.1 12.3 -0.7 31.7 37.9 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.2 14.0 -0.5 45.0 42.9 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.2 15.3 -0.6 37.2 39.9 13.8 14.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 13.0 12.7 12.9 -0.7 32.5 37.7 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.1 15.7 -0.6 44.4 43.1 13.6 14.4 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.1 11.7 -0.5 39.6 41.2 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.4 16.0 -0.6 43.2 42.3 13.2 13.8 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.6 9.7 -0.5 39.4 41.5 7.5 7.8 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 12.7 13.2 15.4 -0.5 39.5 42.0 12.8 13.8 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.3 15.8 -0.5 46.8 44.1 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.1 15.9 -0.5 44.4 43.0 12.7 13.2 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.5 14.0 -0.5 42.2 42.7 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.2 14.8 -0.6 39.1 40.6 12.6 13.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 11.6 11.6 11.6 -0.7 33.7 36.9 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.0 15.5 -0.6 40.6 42.0 12.3 13.4 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 11.9 12.0 14.2 -0.5 38.5 40.9 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.8 11.0 -0.5 40.5 41.8 9.3 10.4 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 14.7 13.8 16.1 -0.6 43.1 42.3 13.2 14.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------