***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.2 13.9 15.5 -0.5 34.4 37.8 13.8 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.8 13.5 15.4 -0.5 35.4 37.6 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.4 15.1 15.8 -0.3 38.5 41.0 14.9 16.1 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.5 10.5 13.1 -0.1 41.2 43.4 10.0 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.2 12.7 13.9 -0.2 42.5 44.3 12.3 12.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.0 11.7 10.7 -0.3 45.3 43.3 11.1 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.0 13.9 15.4 -0.4 39.5 39.4 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 7.0 7.0 11.3 0.2 55.2 54.8 5.5 6.8 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.5 14.3 0.2 55.6 52.0 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 13.8 14.1 12.4 0.3 59.3 56.8 13.2 13.7 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 13.6 13.7 13.8 0.2 55.1 54.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 11.8 11.8 12.2 0.0 50.8 50.1 11.0 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.6 12.4 0.0 49.3 50.0 12.5 13.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 15.2 15.3 14.5 0.7 68.9 65.4 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 15.2 14.6 14.9 -0.1 44.6 45.1 14.1 15.1 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 14.3 14.2 13.0 -0.1 47.7 47.5 13.0 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 15.1 14.6 15.4 -0.3 42.5 42.2 13.5 15.0 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 12.6 12.9 11.9 0.4 57.3 57.0 11.8 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.8 13.9 15.5 -0.4 38.7 40.5 13.3 14.6 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 8.4 8.4 9.8 0.2 54.1 53.4 7.9 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 14.4 13.9 15.2 0.0 46.4 47.3 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 14.1 13.9 15.7 -0.1 47.2 46.8 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 14.2 13.8 15.7 -0.1 46.0 46.3 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 14.0 14.6 14.2 0.4 60.6 59.0 13.1 13.8 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 12.7 13.1 14.2 -0.8 31.3 34.5 13.2 14.4 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.7 12.5 11.0 -0.2 44.7 45.5 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 12.3 12.6 14.7 -0.8 30.7 33.5 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 13.1 12.9 13.7 -0.1 46.3 46.1 12.1 13.0 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 11.0 11.1 11.1 0.4 59.9 59.0 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.0 15.6 -0.5 36.1 38.2 13.8 15.1 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------