***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 51.8 62.0 47.6 86.2 42.5 42.3 59.4 69.6 89.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 50.4 68.5 43.9 92.7 49.5 44.0 52.0 69.9 87.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 57.7 81.8 46.9 88.6 48.6 41.5 66.0 81.9 98.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 46.0 56.6 44.7 83.0 44.8 39.0 51.3 60.4 90.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 44.5 53.6 46.5 86.7 46.6 42.0 41.8 57.2 80.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 37.4 41.3 49.6 73.0 33.0 33.8 41.4 56.2 73.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 45.0 67.2 45.1 93.6 52.4 45.4 58.7 65.8 73.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 59.2 66.9 50.3 80.3 37.8 35.8 62.0 80.4 121.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 48.0 60.4 47.6 82.5 47.8 40.2 49.0 66.0 85.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 53.7 67.3 53.4 80.9 39.9 37.0 64.9 78.5 100.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 72.4 60.1 45.9 85.7 45.1 41.1 44.1 66.3 84.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 33.6 47.4 42.1 79.1 38.4 37.0 41.8 52.7 66.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 31.6 37.1 44.5 76.1 36.5 36.2 35.9 44.7 56.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 69.9 77.9 56.8 86.4 43.3 41.1 66.9 101.8 114.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 28.9 36.8 38.4 82.2 43.9 40.6 33.5 44.3 62.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 29.7 42.4 43.3 79.4 39.2 37.7 27.5 52.6 64.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 43.8 65.8 42.8 94.1 47.5 45.2 42.3 69.4 93.0 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 51.9 64.2 58.4 80.7 38.2 36.6 53.6 80.6 93.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 51.5 74.1 44.5 91.5 48.4 43.1 51.9 75.3 85.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 47.9 57.5 58.8 82.0 34.5 35.6 57.0 62.7 83.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 47.9 56.1 46.3 83.1 43.7 40.1 52.4 66.3 84.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 46.6 59.5 45.8 97.2 48.7 46.7 43.8 62.5 81.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 52.2 67.4 45.9 88.1 47.1 41.6 55.9 69.3 86.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 69.2 82.7 52.6 83.4 43.4 39.5 74.9 86.2 112.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 45.1 76.8 53.5 88.1 48.4 43.8 52.4 77.0 84.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 36.7 42.6 34.9 69.2 34.8 34.2 40.4 52.7 74.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 52.4 80.7 52.8 87.7 45.2 43.7 61.0 87.4 100.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 34.5 42.8 42.6 82.0 43.6 39.3 38.1 45.9 67.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 73.0 78.6 61.7 83.2 38.7 37.9 64.8 101.2 119.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 59.7 77.0 45.5 91.7 51.7 43.6 67.5 75.4 88.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------