***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.2 14.7 10.5 93.5 65.5 47.9 5.4 11.2 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 17.2 9.0 86.6 65.8 49.1 7.8 13.0 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.5 17.0 9.8 87.2 66.2 47.9 6.8 11.2 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.7 15.6 9.8 99.2 68.4 46.8 5.5 7.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.8 11.4 8.9 87.7 67.5 45.7 3.8 5.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.0 5.7 8.7 71.0 59.1 39.8 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.6 12.6 9.6 90.5 65.5 48.4 4.5 8.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.4 20.3 7.6 70.1 55.5 41.3 9.3 17.4 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.4 14.9 9.1 79.4 63.5 44.2 5.1 8.9 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.4 14.5 9.3 74.9 58.7 43.0 7.0 12.0 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.2 7.8 86.9 64.2 45.5 2.6 6.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.6 16.0 6.5 72.9 59.3 42.1 4.6 13.6 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.7 7.5 74.3 60.8 43.2 1.8 6.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.1 17.8 11.4 79.6 60.0 45.4 6.3 11.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 11.8 7.0 88.3 68.4 48.4 0.6 2.0 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.8 8.8 8.5 90.7 66.0 44.4 1.3 3.9 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.7 22.8 9.0 91.8 69.6 48.7 4.0 10.8 19.5 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 10.2 16.0 10.7 76.0 57.8 44.0 11.5 14.6 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.3 14.7 8.9 83.6 64.3 48.6 4.8 10.0 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.4 19.1 9.4 66.8 51.7 41.7 8.3 17.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.2 15.1 9.7 87.8 65.6 45.8 7.7 9.6 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 8.9 19.2 8.7 88.7 68.1 48.9 9.0 14.4 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.0 13.2 8.5 75.8 61.2 47.3 8.2 9.9 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.8 20.6 10.2 77.0 60.5 44.2 9.3 14.2 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 5.9 13.4 11.4 99.5 67.4 50.4 7.0 11.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 13.5 4.8 68.0 65.1 43.9 2.7 6.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.9 19.4 11.5 95.2 66.2 49.2 6.1 11.9 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.0 13.8 8.9 98.9 69.7 45.9 2.0 4.5 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.2 24.7 11.0 75.8 56.9 44.4 11.4 19.8 31.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.8 24.8 9.5 87.9 65.5 50.1 6.2 12.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------