***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.0 16.7 12.3 87.9 59.6 41.1 5.6 14.3 20.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.0 17.2 11.6 100.5 63.0 43.3 3.2 10.8 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.5 20.3 12.3 91.4 63.6 42.1 6.5 12.4 20.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.4 14.4 12.5 99.7 67.1 43.6 3.1 9.2 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.7 17.1 12.8 98.2 69.7 43.9 2.5 9.9 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 4.0 13.6 12.9 74.2 56.9 42.3 2.8 10.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.3 11.7 10.7 90.1 59.7 42.9 3.2 8.8 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.3 13.1 12.7 81.6 56.2 36.6 3.0 7.2 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.5 11.3 13.1 88.9 61.6 40.1 2.6 6.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.3 12.5 13.9 85.4 57.7 38.1 2.4 8.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.7 10.6 10.9 90.8 64.9 41.6 1.4 7.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 1.9 7.8 10.0 74.7 56.6 35.8 2.0 5.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.9 6.7 10.7 68.6 55.2 38.5 2.4 4.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.4 21.3 15.4 96.7 63.4 42.1 7.2 12.3 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.5 8.5 9.7 93.9 65.5 43.7 1.4 3.6 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.0 11.4 10.9 81.3 61.9 40.9 1.5 5.8 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.6 16.8 11.4 101.9 64.6 44.8 5.0 9.9 20.3 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.9 12.9 15.7 85.6 54.8 39.6 1.5 7.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.8 17.6 12.3 104.2 65.1 42.7 4.2 9.9 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.2 13.4 16.0 86.0 55.3 39.6 6.1 11.1 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.6 16.7 11.9 83.3 60.8 38.8 1.3 10.5 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.2 13.5 13.0 113.5 69.0 46.1 4.4 7.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 5.7 21.9 13.4 108.4 66.2 42.6 8.7 12.5 21.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.7 21.6 14.4 92.4 60.5 41.0 7.8 16.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.3 16.1 13.8 89.5 60.4 43.3 5.1 9.2 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.7 11.6 8.0 59.8 59.4 39.0 1.0 6.8 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 5.1 17.1 13.5 88.2 58.9 43.1 5.0 12.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.6 11.5 98.8 69.0 43.0 1.7 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.6 17.1 16.7 88.3 56.0 41.1 8.2 16.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 5.6 14.6 11.9 96.7 60.1 44.1 3.9 10.9 19.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------