***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.6 7.5 13.0 71.8 44.9 37.6 4.3 8.0 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 18.6 15.0 13.4 90.5 56.2 47.9 5.7 11.6 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.4 15.8 14.0 83.3 52.6 45.0 7.3 14.5 31.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 5.4 10.2 11.0 56.8 40.1 33.8 9.0 14.7 36.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.1 10.6 12.6 67.9 45.0 39.0 4.1 13.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 5.0 7.2 12.2 56.7 37.8 34.1 4.8 11.6 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.3 11.3 14.2 100.5 62.2 50.3 4.2 9.3 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.1 13.1 11.0 59.4 39.8 35.2 10.8 16.5 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 5.2 11.0 10.3 56.9 42.1 32.3 9.1 14.0 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 9.7 17.1 11.7 57.7 39.8 33.8 9.6 21.3 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.5 12.4 14.1 71.2 45.6 41.2 7.8 14.3 22.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.3 10.6 60.7 40.2 36.6 3.0 5.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.8 7.1 13.4 66.0 42.2 38.5 5.5 11.1 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 9.8 16.5 13.9 68.2 44.4 37.5 12.1 19.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.1 11.3 62.4 50.1 39.2 2.5 7.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.9 3.7 11.6 59.2 37.0 35.0 2.7 8.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.2 8.3 12.2 91.2 57.3 46.4 3.6 7.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 7.2 7.0 11.9 53.1 32.1 30.8 7.7 19.6 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 18.9 15.1 13.0 83.0 56.0 45.6 6.9 11.5 21.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.7 12.6 13.7 65.4 40.3 35.4 9.6 13.4 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 5.0 7.2 11.5 63.2 41.9 33.8 4.8 9.1 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 12.6 13.8 93.2 60.0 49.2 5.5 8.8 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.2 12.2 12.7 75.5 56.0 43.7 4.8 10.4 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 12.4 18.0 12.9 65.6 39.8 36.1 13.9 24.3 38.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.8 10.1 16.6 75.8 48.4 41.3 6.0 10.6 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 12.1 8.6 11.5 66.8 48.5 43.2 4.7 8.6 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.8 11.6 16.0 78.2 48.4 41.8 8.1 12.6 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 6.5 10.9 10.1 53.2 40.5 33.8 3.3 18.1 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 15.7 24.2 15.4 64.9 39.2 35.7 10.8 29.3 37.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 21.4 19.3 14.3 92.5 55.8 48.4 4.0 16.5 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------