***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 19.6 33.3 11.9 98.9 63.4 56.3 4.6 15.9 34.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 21.9 25.2 9.8 93.8 64.7 53.4 8.9 19.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 18.3 27.1 10.8 94.3 62.9 55.6 5.9 15.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 20.7 19.8 11.4 94.8 58.4 56.1 6.9 18.9 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 14.8 17.5 12.1 101.0 62.2 59.6 8.3 13.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 23.3 24.0 15.8 95.1 62.3 57.8 12.8 21.4 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.9 10.6 91.4 62.2 51.4 10.8 12.5 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 20.4 33.4 19.0 107.7 63.8 59.4 10.6 16.8 35.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 19.4 21.1 15.1 112.6 65.3 62.7 10.0 18.0 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 18.9 29.0 18.5 107.7 64.5 59.7 4.5 16.6 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 15.1 17.8 13.1 98.2 60.9 58.9 7.1 13.2 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.3 15.0 111.1 64.3 61.9 4.1 13.1 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 19.1 21.1 13.0 102.5 65.0 62.1 5.5 17.5 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.7 24.5 16.1 106.4 63.4 55.2 11.1 13.6 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 13.3 15.6 10.3 101.3 62.0 57.3 2.5 10.6 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 10.9 11.9 12.2 100.2 61.7 59.6 2.6 8.3 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.8 21.7 10.3 91.5 63.8 51.6 4.7 13.8 21.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 17.0 19.9 20.0 115.5 62.7 59.3 8.9 15.3 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 19.7 25.2 10.4 97.8 64.4 55.4 6.7 17.5 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 20.1 25.7 19.7 108.2 63.1 59.0 6.4 17.4 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 16.0 20.2 13.1 108.4 63.0 60.6 8.6 13.8 21.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 18.0 19.7 10.2 93.4 62.9 51.3 8.8 14.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 17.5 20.2 11.2 96.8 62.0 55.5 6.2 16.0 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 21.5 21.5 15.1 104.9 63.2 58.1 10.7 19.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 12.1 24.0 11.8 97.6 65.1 58.3 4.4 8.9 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 18.4 19.6 10.6 82.1 55.4 52.3 0.9 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 18.6 28.5 11.8 95.2 64.2 55.3 3.0 16.0 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 11.6 12.0 12.1 98.7 60.6 57.2 3.6 10.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 20.5 24.5 18.7 107.8 62.4 56.6 8.6 18.4 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 22.7 23.8 9.8 89.2 64.1 52.7 12.1 19.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------