***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.1 27.1 0.5 59.2 58.8 25.9 26.9 27.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 27.4 27.2 27.7 0.9 69.4 64.1 26.2 26.9 27.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.9 27.2 27.5 0.6 62.9 60.2 26.1 26.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 20.0 20.3 24.8 0.6 63.2 60.8 19.1 19.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.9 25.5 0.6 65.0 60.5 26.1 27.1 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.7 23.1 0.8 70.2 65.2 25.0 25.7 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 27.0 27.3 27.7 0.9 68.9 64.0 25.8 26.3 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 16.0 15.9 23.7 0.9 74.6 66.8 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 27.0 27.3 26.0 0.6 65.6 61.5 25.7 26.7 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 27.4 27.6 24.5 0.8 73.1 65.4 25.6 26.3 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 27.9 27.8 25.6 0.8 72.0 64.8 25.9 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 27.0 27.2 24.8 0.9 73.3 66.2 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 28.0 28.4 24.6 0.9 72.0 65.5 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 27.3 28.1 26.1 1.1 81.5 69.8 25.6 26.5 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 27.8 28.5 26.4 0.4 61.9 59.2 26.7 27.6 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 28.6 28.5 25.0 0.8 71.2 64.9 26.6 27.8 28.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 26.9 26.7 27.8 1.1 74.3 68.3 25.7 26.0 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 26.8 27.1 23.9 1.0 78.6 68.1 25.1 26.1 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 26.8 26.9 27.7 0.8 69.7 64.2 25.7 26.0 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 22.6 22.9 21.7 1.1 77.3 68.7 20.8 21.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 27.0 27.4 26.9 0.5 62.2 58.8 25.9 26.6 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 27.1 27.0 27.6 1.2 75.1 69.4 26.1 26.6 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.4 27.7 1.0 74.2 67.7 25.9 26.4 26.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 27.1 27.1 25.9 0.9 75.9 66.9 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.0 27.6 25.5 0.4 60.3 57.3 25.9 26.7 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 27.5 28.0 24.5 1.2 76.5 70.3 26.1 26.6 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.5 27.0 26.3 0.5 60.9 58.8 25.7 26.3 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 27.8 28.4 25.4 0.5 63.9 60.9 27.0 27.5 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 22.1 22.7 23.1 1.1 79.4 69.1 20.5 21.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.6 27.0 27.6 0.7 65.5 61.7 26.0 26.3 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------