***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 28.4 28.7 27.5 0.9 70.0 59.3 25.0 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 28.8 28.7 28.1 1.3 70.4 62.5 24.4 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 28.9 28.9 27.9 1.0 70.5 59.7 24.3 27.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 21.2 21.6 25.6 1.0 67.1 61.0 17.9 20.9 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.8 25.8 1.0 66.8 59.8 25.2 28.0 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 28.3 29.0 23.7 1.5 76.4 66.3 24.3 26.3 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 28.4 28.8 28.1 1.3 70.7 63.3 24.3 27.0 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 16.9 17.0 24.3 1.4 73.2 63.4 13.6 16.2 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 25.0 28.3 26.0 1.0 67.2 59.5 24.5 27.1 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.6 24.8 1.2 71.1 61.7 24.8 27.3 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.5 25.7 1.3 69.8 62.3 24.6 27.4 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 27.8 27.8 25.4 1.4 72.9 64.0 24.5 26.3 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 29.2 29.3 24.6 1.5 73.8 64.8 25.4 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 29.1 28.9 26.1 1.4 73.4 63.0 24.8 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 28.5 29.6 26.6 0.9 64.7 60.9 26.3 28.2 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 29.7 29.5 25.3 1.4 71.8 63.9 25.5 28.3 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.3 28.3 1.5 71.4 64.4 23.6 26.9 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.3 28.4 24.3 1.4 74.3 62.4 24.1 26.9 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 28.2 28.2 28.1 1.2 70.2 61.7 24.2 26.8 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.6 24.1 22.0 1.5 76.3 64.4 19.8 22.4 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 25.5 28.4 26.9 0.8 66.9 58.3 24.4 27.9 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.8 28.9 28.0 1.4 70.8 63.4 24.3 27.3 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 28.5 28.8 27.9 1.3 72.0 62.2 24.4 27.4 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 28.6 28.1 25.9 1.3 72.0 61.7 24.2 26.9 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.4 25.7 0.8 66.7 58.5 24.4 27.7 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 28.8 29.7 25.4 2.0 78.9 69.2 25.1 27.0 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 27.4 28.2 26.6 0.9 68.7 59.6 24.2 27.0 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.5 26.0 1.1 66.9 61.7 26.7 28.4 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 23.6 23.6 23.5 1.5 74.9 63.1 19.0 22.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 28.6 28.6 27.9 1.1 70.7 61.2 24.4 27.2 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------