***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.8 27.7 1.4 70.1 65.2 24.7 26.6 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 27.6 28.3 28.2 1.6 73.2 66.4 24.1 25.6 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 27.0 28.2 28.1 1.6 71.2 65.7 24.1 25.0 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 21.1 21.9 25.6 1.8 77.9 69.1 17.5 19.0 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 27.7 28.9 26.4 1.8 76.5 67.7 24.8 25.4 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 27.3 28.0 24.4 2.1 81.6 71.3 23.9 25.0 25.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 27.4 27.7 28.1 1.6 73.0 66.3 23.9 25.4 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 16.5 17.5 24.6 2.1 79.9 70.4 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 27.2 28.6 27.0 1.8 77.6 67.8 23.9 24.8 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 27.3 28.5 25.4 2.0 80.2 69.6 24.2 25.0 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 27.7 28.8 26.7 2.0 78.8 70.2 24.4 25.1 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 27.1 27.9 25.8 2.1 79.8 70.5 24.0 25.0 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 28.1 28.9 26.0 2.1 82.1 71.1 25.0 26.1 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 27.1 29.4 26.8 2.1 82.7 70.3 23.7 24.3 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 28.6 29.4 27.5 1.7 79.0 69.6 25.4 26.7 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 28.6 29.5 26.2 2.1 80.7 71.0 25.3 26.7 28.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 26.9 27.9 28.1 1.8 75.8 67.5 23.7 25.1 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 27.2 28.4 24.7 2.2 81.9 70.4 23.6 24.4 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 26.8 27.7 28.1 1.7 73.2 66.7 23.5 24.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 23.1 24.2 22.6 2.2 80.2 71.2 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 27.3 28.1 27.7 1.6 73.3 66.1 24.3 25.3 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 27.6 28.4 27.9 1.9 76.3 68.2 24.0 25.5 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 27.3 28.8 28.2 2.0 78.8 69.1 23.5 25.0 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 27.1 28.6 26.7 2.0 80.7 69.3 23.5 24.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 27.6 28.0 26.4 1.4 71.7 64.9 24.5 25.8 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 27.8 28.7 25.6 2.5 82.7 73.8 24.9 26.0 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 27.1 27.6 27.0 1.4 70.8 65.0 23.7 25.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 28.7 29.5 26.5 1.8 79.0 69.8 25.5 26.5 28.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 22.6 24.2 24.0 2.2 82.8 71.1 19.1 19.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 27.4 27.6 28.0 1.5 71.9 65.6 23.8 24.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------